Finland
Reduction in Greenhouse Gas and Other Emissions from Ship Engines: Current Trends and Future Options
Nov 2022
Publication
The impact of ship emission reductions can be maximised by considering climate health and environmental effects simultaneously and using solutions fitting into existing marine engines and infrastructure. Several options available enable selecting optimum solutions for different ships routes and regions. Carbon-neutral fuels including low-carbon and carbon-negative fuels from biogenic or non-biogenic origin (biomass waste renewable hydrogen) could resemble current marine fuels (diesel-type methane and methanol). The carbon-neutrality of fuels depends on their Well-to-Wake (WtW) emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) including carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide emissions (N2O). Additionally non-gaseous black carbon (BC) emissions have high global warming potential (GWP). Exhaust emissions which are harmful to health or the environment need to be equally removed using emission control achieved by fuel engine or exhaust aftertreatment technologies. Harmful emission species include nitrogen oxides (NOx) sulphur oxides (SOx) ammonia (NH3) formaldehyde particle mass (PM) and number emissions (PN). Particles may carry polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals which cause serious adverse health issues. Carbon-neutral fuels are typically sulphur-free enabling negligible SOx emissions and efficient exhaust aftertreatment technologies such as particle filtration. The combinations of carbon-neutral drop-in fuels and efficient emission control technologies would enable (near-)zero-emission shipping and these could be adaptable in the short- to mid-term. Substantial savings in external costs on society caused by ship emissions give arguments for regulations policies and investments needed to support this development.
Power Balance Control and Dimensioning of a Hybrid Off-grid Energy system for a Nordic Climate Townhouse
Mar 2023
Publication
This paper investigates conversion of a Nordic oil-heated townhouse into carbon-neutral by different energy efficiency (EE) improvements and an off-grid system including solar photovoltaics (PV) wind power and battery and hydrogen energy storage systems (BESS and HESS). A heat-pump-based heating system including waste heat recovery (WHR) from the HESS and an off-grid electrical system are dimensioned for the building by applying models developed in MATLAB and Microsoft Excel to study the life cycle costs (LCC). The work uses a measured electrical load profile and the heat generation of the new heating system and the power generation are simulated by commercial software. It is shown that the EE improvements and WHR from the HESS have a positive effect on the dimensioning of the off-grid system and the LCC can be reduced by up to €2 million. With the EE improvements and WHR the component dimensioning can be reduced by 22%–41% and 13%–51% on average respectively. WHR can cover up to 57% of the building's annual heat demand and full-power dimensioning of the heat pump is not reasonable when WHR is applied. Wind power was found to be very relevant in the Nordic conditions reducing the LCC by 32%.
Trends in the Global Steel Industry: Evolutionary Projections and Defossilisation Pathways through Power-to-steel
Sep 2022
Publication
Steel production is a carbon and energy intensive activity releasing 1.9 tons of CO2 and requiring 5.17 MWh of primary energy per ton produced on average globally resulting in 9% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions. To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement of limiting global temperature increase to below 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels the structure of the global steel production must change fundamentally. There are several technological paths towards a lower carbon intensity for steelmaking which bring with them a paradigm shift decoupling CO2 emissions from crude steel production by transitioning from traditional methods of steel production using fossil coal and fossil methane to those based on low-cost renewable electricity and green hydrogen. However the energy system consequences of fully defossilised steelmaking has not yet been examined in detail. This research examines the energy system requirements a global defossilised power-to-steel industry using a GDP-based demand model for global steel demands which projects a growth in steel demand from 1.6 Gt in 2020 to 2.4 Gt in 2100. Three scenarios are developed to investigate the emissions trajectory energy demands and economics of a high penetration of direct hydrogen reduction and electrowinning in global steel production. Results indicate that the global steel industry will see green hydrogen demands grow significantly ranging from 2809 to 4371 TWhH2 by 2050. Under the studied conditions global steel production is projected to see reductions in final thermal energy demand of between 38.3% and 57.7% and increases in total electricity demand by factors between 15.1 and 13.3 by 2050 depending on the scenario. Furthermore CO2 emissions from steelmaking can be reduced to zero.
Green Hydrogen Supply Chain Risk Analysis: A European Hard-to-abate Sectors Perspective
May 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen is a tentative solution for the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors such as steel chemical cement and refinery industries. Green hydrogen is a form of hydrogen gas that is produced using renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power through a process called electrolysis. The green hydrogen supply chain includes several interconnected entities such as renewable energy providers electrolysers distribution facilities and consumers. Although there have been many studies about green hydrogen little attention has been devoted to green hydrogen supply chain risk identification and analysis especially for hard-to-abate sectors in Europe. This research contributes to existing knowledge by identifying and analysing the European region’s green hydrogen supply chain risk factors. Using a Delphi method 7 categories and 43 risk factors are identified based on the green hydrogen supply chain experts’ opinions. The best-worst method is utilised to determine the importance weights of the risk categories and risk factors. High investment of capital for hydrogen production and delivery technology was the highest-ranked risk factor followed by the lack of enough capacity for electrolyser and policy & regulation development. Several mitigation strategies and policy recommendations are proposed for high-importance risk factors. This study provides novelty in the form of an integrated approach resulting in a scientific ranking of the risk factors for the green hydrogen supply chain. The results of this study provide empirical evidence which corroborates with previous studies that European countries should endeavour to create comprehensive and supportive standards and regulations for green hydrogen supply chain implementation.
Global Demand Analysis for Carbon Dioxide as Raw Material from Key Industrial Sources and Direct Air Capture to Produce Renewable Electricity-based Fuels and Chemicals
Sep 2022
Publication
Defossilisation of the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system is one of the key goals in the upcoming decades to mitigate climate change. Sharp reduction in the costs of solar photovoltaics wind power and battery technologies enables a rapid transition of the power and some segments of the transport sectors to sustainable energy resources. However renewable electricity-based fuels and chemicals are required for the defossilisation of hard-to-abate segments of transport and industry. The global demand for carbon dioxide as raw material for the production of e-fuels and e-chemicals during a global energy transition to 100% renewable energy is analysed in this research. Carbon dioxide capture and utilisation potentials from key industrial point sources including cement mills pulp and paper mills and waste incinerators are evaluated. According to this study’s estimates the demand for carbon dioxide increases from 0.6 in 2030 to 6.1 gigatonnes in 2050. Key industrial point sources can potentially supply 2.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and thus meet the majority of the demand in the 2030s. By 2050 however direct air capture is expected to supply the majority of the demand contributing 3.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Sustainable and unavoidable industrial point sources and direct air capture are vital technologies which may help the world to achieve ambitious climate goals.
Deep Decarbonisation Pathways of the Energy System in Times of Unprecedented Uncertainty in the Energy Sector
May 2023
Publication
Unprecedented investments in clean energy technology are required for a net-zero carbon energy system before temperatures breach the Paris Agreement goals. By performing a Monte-Carlo Analysis with the detailed ETSAPTIAM Integrated Assessment Model and by generating 4000 scenarios of the world’s energy system climate and economy we find that the uncertainty surrounding technology costs resource potentials climate sensitivity and the level of decoupling between energy demands and economic growth influence the efficiency of climate policies and accentuate investment risks in clean energy technologies. Contrary to other studies relying on exploring the uncertainty space via model intercomparison we find that the CO2 emissions and CO2 prices vary convexly and nonlinearly with the discount rate and climate sensitivity over time. Accounting for this uncertainty is important for designing climate policies and carbon prices to accelerate the transition. In 70% of the scenarios a 1.5 ◦C temperature overshoot was within this decade calling for immediate policy action. Delaying this action by ten years may result in 2 ◦C mitigation costs being similar to those required to reach the 1.5 ◦C target if started today with an immediate peak in emissions a larger uncertainty in the medium-term horizon and a higher effort for net-zero emissions.
Numerical Study on Hydrogen–Gasoline Dual-Fuel Spark Ignition Engine
Nov 2022
Publication
Hydrogen as a suitable and clean energy carrier has been long considered a primary fuel or in combination with other conventional fuels such as gasoline and diesel. Since the density of hydrogen is very low in port fuel-injection configuration the engine’s volumetric efficiency reduces due to the replacement of hydrogen by intake air. Therefore hydrogen direct in-cylinder injection (injection after the intake valve closes) can be a suitable solution for hydrogen utilization in spark ignition (SI) engines. In this study the effects of hydrogen direct injection with different hydrogen energy shares (HES) on the performance and emissions characteristics of a gasoline port-injection SI engine are investigated based on reactive computational fluid dynamics. Three different injection timings of hydrogen together with five different HES are applied at low and full load on a hydrogen– gasoline dual-fuel SI engine. The results show that retarded hydrogen injection timing increases the concentration of hydrogen near the spark plug resulting in areas with higher average temperatures which led to NOX emission deterioration at −120 Crank angle degree After Top Dead Center (CAD aTDC) start of injection (SOI) compared to the other modes. At −120 CAD aTDC SOI for 50% HES the amount of NOX was 26% higher than −140 CAD aTDC SOI. In the meanwhile an advanced hydrogen injection timing formed a homogeneous mixture of hydrogen which decreased the HC and soot concentration so that −140 CAD aTDC SOI implied the lowest amount of HC and soot. Moreover with the increase in the amount of HES the concentrations of CO CO2 and soot were reduced. Having the HES by 50% at −140 CAD aTDC SOI the concentrations of particulate matter (PM) CO and CO2 were reduced by 96.3% 90% and 46% respectively. However due to more complete combustion and an elevated combustion average temperature the amount of NOX emission increased drastically.
A Review on the Kinetics of Iron Ore Reduction by Hydrogen
Dec 2021
Publication
A clean energy revolution is occurring across the world. As iron and steelmaking have a tremendous impact on the amount of CO2 emissions there is an increasing attraction towards improving the green footprint of iron and steel production. Among reducing agents hydrogen has shown a great potential to be replaced with fossil fuels and to decarbonize the steelmaking processes. Although hydrogen is in great supply on earth extracting pure H2 from its compound is costly. Therefore it is crucial to calculate the partial pressure of H2 with the aid of reduction reaction kinetics to limit the costs. This review summarizes the studies of critical parameters to determine the kinetics of reduction. The variables considered were temperature iron ore type (magnetite hematite goethite) H2/CO ratio porosity flow rate the concentration of diluent (He Ar N2 ) gas utility annealing before reduction and pressure. In fact increasing temperature H2/CO ratio hydrogen flow rate and hematite percentage in feed leads to a higher reduction rate. In addition the controlling kinetics models and the impact of the mentioned parameters on them investigated and compared concluding chemical reaction at the interfaces and diffusion of hydrogen through the iron oxide particle are the most common kinetics controlling models.
Numerical Study on Tri-fuel Combustion: Ignition Properties of Hydrogen-enriched Methane-diesel and Methanol-diesel Mixtures
Jan 2020
Publication
Simultaneous and interactive combustion of three fuels with differing reactivities is investigated by numerical simulations. In the present study conventional dual-fuel (DF) ignition phenomena relevant to DF compression ignition (CI) engines are extended and explored in tri-fuel (TF) context. In the present TF setup a low reactivity fuel (LRF) methane or methanol is perfectly mixed with hydrogen and air to form the primary fuel blend at the lean equivalence ratio of 0.5. Further such primary fuel blends are ignited by a high-reactivity fuel (HRF) here n-dodecane under conditions similar to HRF spray assisted ignition. Here ignition is relevant to the HRF containing parts of the tri-fuel mixtures while flame propagation is assumed to occur in the premixed LRF/ containing end gas regions. The role of hydrogen as TF mixture reactivity modulator is explored. Mixing is characterized by n-dodecane mixture fraction ξ and molar ratio . When x < 0.6 minor changes are observed for the first- and second-stage ignition delay time (IDT) of tri-fuel compared to dual-fuel blends (x = 0). For methane when x > 0.6 first- and second-stage IDT increase by factor 1.4–2. For methanol a respective decrease by factor 1.2–2 is reported. Such contrasting trends for the two LRFs are explained by reaction sensitivity analysis indicating the importance of OH radical production/consumption in the ignition process. Observations on LRF/ end gas laminar flame speed () indicate that increases with x due to the highly diffusive features of . For methane increase with x is more significant than for methanol.
Impact of International Transportation Chains on Cost of Green E-hydrogen: Global Cost of Hydrogen and Consequences for Germany and Finland
Jun 2023
Publication
Widely available and low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind power can enable production of renewable electricity-based hydrogen at many locations throughout the world. Hydrogen is expected to emerge as an important energy carrier constituting some of the final energy demand; however its most important role will be as feedstock for further processing to e-fuels e-chemicals and e-steel. Apart from meeting their own hydrogen demand countries may have opportunities to export hydrogen to countries with area limitations or higher production costs. This paper assesses the feasibility of e-hydrogen imports to Germany and Finland from two case regions with a high availability of low-cost renewable electricity Chile and Morocco in comparison to domestic supply. Special attention is paid to the transport infrastructure which has a crucial impact on the economic viability of imports via two routes shipping and pipelines. This study has found that despite lower e-hydrogen production costs in Morocco and Chile compared to Germany and Finland additional transportation costs make imports of e-hydrogen economically unattractive. In early 2020s imported fuel costs are 39–79% and 34–100% higher than e-hydrogen produced in Germany and Finland respectively. In 2050 imported e-hydrogen is projected to be 39–70% more expensive than locally produced e-hydrogen in Germany and 43–54% in the case of Finland. e-Hydrogen may become a fuel that is mostly produced domestically and may be feasible for imports only in specific locations. Local e-hydrogen production may also lower dependence on imports enhance energy security and add jobs.
Techno-Economic Assessment of Power-to-Liquids (PtL) Fuels Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants
Nov 2016
Publication
This paper introduces a value chain design for transportation fuels and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants electrolysis and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) based on hourly resolved full load hours (FLh). The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into synthetic fuels mainly diesel. Results show that the proposed RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost) depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the RE-PtL value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy and a special focus on mid to long-term electrolyser and H2tL efficiency improvements. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of terawatts.
Resilience-oriented Operation of Microgrids in the Presence of Power-to-hydrogen Systems
Jul 2023
Publication
This study presents a novel framework for improving the resilience of microgrids based on the power-to-hydrogen concept and the ability of microgrids to operate independently (i.e. islanded mode). For this purpose a model is being developed for the resilient operation of microgrids in which the compressed hydrogen produced by power-to-hydrogen systems can either be used to generate electricity through fuel cells or sold to other industries. The model is a bi-objective optimization problem which minimizes the cost of operation and resilience by (i) reducing the active power exchange with the main grid (ii) reducing the ohmic power losses and (iii) increasing the amount of hydrogen stored in the tanks. A solution approach is also developed to deal with the complexity of the bi-objective model combining a goal programming approach and Generalized Benders Decomposition due to the mixed-integer nonlinear nature of the optimization problem. The results indicate that the resilience approach although increasing the operation cost does not lead to load shedding in the event of main grid failures. The study concludes that integrating distributed power-to-hydrogen systems results in significant benefits including emission reductions of up to 20 % and cost savings of up to 30 %. Additionally the integration of the decomposition method improves computational performance by 54 % compared to using commercial solvers within the GAMS software.
How "Clean" is the Hydrogen Economy? Tracing the Connections Between Hydrogen and Fossil Fuels
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen is experiencing a resurgence in energy transition debates. Before representing a solution however the existing hydrogen economy is still a climate change headache: over 99 % of production depends on fossil fuels oil refining accounts for 42 % of demand and its transportation is intertwined with fossil infrastructure like natural gas pipelines. This article investigates the path-dependent dynamics shaping the hydrogen economy and its interconnections with the oil and gas industry. It draws on the global production networks (GPN) approach and political economy research to provide a comprehensive review of current and prospective enduses of hydrogen modes of transport networks of industrial actors and state strategies along the major production facilities and holders of intellectual property rights. The results presented in this article suggest that the superimposition of private agendas may jeopardise the viability of future energy systems and requires counterbalancing forces to override the negative consequences of path-dependent energy transitions.
Lessons Learned and Recommendations from Analysis of Hydrogen Incidents and Accidents to Support Risk Assessment for the Hydrogen Economy
Feb 2024
Publication
This study addresses challenges associated with hydrogen’s physio-chemical characteristics and the need for safety and public acceptance as a precursor to the emerging hydrogen economy. It highlights the gap in existing literature regarding lessons learned from events in the green hydrogen production value chain. The study aims to use the documented lessons learned from previous hydrogen-related events to assist in enhancing safety measures and to guide stakeholders on how to avoid and mitigate future hydrogen-related events. Given the potential catastrophic consequences robust safety systems are essential for hydrogen economy development. The work underscores the importance of human and operational factors as root causes of these events. The paper recommends establishing a specialized hydrogen-related event database to support risk assessment and risk mitigation thus catering to the growing hydrogen industry’s needs and facilitating quick access to critical information for stakeholders in the private and public sectors.
Validation of a Hydrogen Jet Fire Model in FDS
Sep 2023
Publication
Hydrogen jet fire occurs with high probability when hydrogen leaks from high-pressure equipment. The hydrogen jet fire is characterized by its high velocity and energy. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical analysis is a prominent way to predict the potential hazards associated with hydrogen jet fire. Validation of the CFD model is essential to ensure and quantify the accuracy of numerical results. This study focuses on the validation of the hydrogen jet fire model using Fire Dynamic Simulation (FDS). Hydrogen release is modeled using high-speed Lagrangian particles released from a virtual nozzle thus avoiding the modeling of the actual nozzle. The mesh size sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out in a container-size domain with 0.04m – 0.08m resolution of the jet. The model is validated by comparing gas temperatures and heat fluxes with test data. The promising results demonstrated that the model could predict the hazardous influence of the jet fire.
Selecting Appropriate Energy Source Options for an Arctic Research Ship
Dec 2023
Publication
Interest in more sustainable energy sources has increased rapidly in the maritime industry and ambitious goals have been set for decreasing ship emissions. All industry stakeholders have reacted to this with different approaches including the optimisation of ship power plants the development of new energy-improving sub-systems for existing solutions or the design of entirely novel power plant concepts employing alternative fuels. This paper assesses the feasibility of different ship energy sources for an icebreaking Arctic research ship. To that end possible energy sources are assessed based on fuel infrastructure availability and operational endurance criteria in the operational area of interest. Promising alternatives are analysed further using the evidence-based Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) method. Then a more thorough investigation with respect to the required fuel tank space life cycle cost and CO2 emissions is implemented. The results demonstrate that marine diesel oil (MDO) is currently still the most convenient solution due to the space operational range and endurance limitations although it is possible to use liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol if the ship’s arrangement is radically redesigned which will also lead to reduced emissions and life cycle costs. The use of liquefied hydrogen as the only energy solution for the considered vessel was excluded from the potential options due to low volumetric energy density and high life cycle and capital costs. Even if it is used with MDO for the investigated ship the reduction in CO2 emissions will not be as significant as for LNG and methanol at a much higher capital and lifecycle cost. The advantage of the proposed approach is that unrealistic alternatives are eliminated in a systematic manner before proceeding to detailed techno-economic analysis facilitating the decision-making and investigation of various options in a more holistic manner.
Total Cost of Ownership Analysis for Hydrogen and Battery Powertrains: A Comparative Study in Finnish Heavy-duty Transport
Sep 2024
Publication
The road transport sector is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions as it still largely relies on traditional powertrain solutions. While some progress has been made in the passenger car sector with the diffusion of battery electric vehicles heavy-duty transport remains predominantly dependent on diesel internal combustion engines. This research aims to evaluate and compare three potential solutions for the decarbonisation of heavy-duty freight transport from an economic perspective: Battery Electric Trucks (BETs) Fuel Cell Electric Trucks (FCETs) and Hydrogen-fuelled Internal Combustion Engine Trucks (H2ICETs). The study focuses on the Finnish market and road network where affordable and low-carbon electricity creates an ideal environment for the development of alternative powertrain vehicles. The analysis employs the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method which allows for a comprehensive assessment of all cost components associated with the vehicles throughout their entire lifecycle encompassing both initial expenses and operational costs. Among the several factors affecting the results the impact of the three powertrain technologies on the admissible payloads has been taken into account. The study specifically focuses on the costs directly incurred by the truck owner. Additionally to evaluate the cost effectiveness of the proposed powertrain technologies under different scenarios a sensitivity analysis on electricity and hydrogen prices is conducted. The outcomes of this study reveal that no single powertrain solution emerges as universally optimal as the most cost-effective choice depends strongly on the truck type and its use (i.e. daily mileage). For relatively small trucks (18 t) covering short driving distances (approximately 100 to 200 km/day) BETs prove to be the best solution due to their higher efficiency and lower vehicle costs compared to FCETs. Conversely for larger trucks (42 and 76 t) engaged in longer hauls (>300 km/day) H2ICETs exhibit larger cost benefits due to their lower vehicle costs among the three options under investigation. Finally for small trucks (18 t) travelling long distances (200 km/day or more) FCETs represent a competitive choice due to their high efficiency and costeffective energy storage system. Considering future advancements in FCETs and BETs in terms of improved performance and reduced investment cost the fuel cell-based solution is expected to emerge as the best option across various combinations of truck sizes and daily mileages.
Green Hydrogen and Wind Synergy: Assessing Economic Benefits and Optimal Operational Strategies
Aug 2024
Publication
Volatile electricity prices have raised concerns about the economic feasibility of wind projects in Finland. This study assesses the economic viability and optimal operational strategies for integrating wind-powered green hydrogen production systems. Utilizing modeling and optimization this research evaluates various wind farms in Western Finland over electricity market scenarios from 2019 to 2022 with forecasts extending to 2030. Key economic metrics considered include internal rate of return future value net present value (NPV) and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Results indicate that integration of hydrogen production with wind farms shows economic benefits over standalone wind projects potentially reducing LCOH to €2.0/kgH2 by 2030 in regular and low electricity price scenarios and to as low as €0.6/kgH2 in high-price scenarios. The wind farm with the highest capacity factor achieves 47% reductions in LCOH and 22% increases in NPV underscoring the importance of strategic site selection and operational flexibility.
The Role of Power-to-hydrogen in Carbon Neutral Energy and Industrial Systems: Case Finland
Aug 2023
Publication
To combat climate change decarbonization measures are undertaken across the whole energy sector. Industry and transportation sectors are seen as difficult sectors to decarbonize with green hydrogen being proposed as a solution to achieve decarbonization in these sectors. While many methods of introducing hydrogen to these sectors are present in literature few systemlevel works study the specific impacts of large-scale introduction has on power and heat sectors in an energy system. This contribution examines the effects of introducing hydrogen into a Finnish energy system in 2040 by conducting scenario simulations in EnergyPLAN – software. Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the base scenario and hydrogen scenarios are compared. Additionally the differences between a constant and flexible hydrogen production profile are studied. Introducing hydrogen increases electricity consumption by 31.9 % but reduces CO2 emissions by 71.5 % and fossil energy consumption by 72.6%. The flexible hydrogen profile lowers renewable curtailment and improves energy efficiency but requires economically unfeasible hydrogen storage. Biomass consumption remains high and is not impacted significantly by the introduction of hydrogen. Additional measures in other sectors are needed to ensure carbon neutrality.
Mathematical Optimization Modeling for Scenario Analysis of Integrated Steelworks Transitioning Towards Hydrogen-based Reduction
Jul 2024
Publication
To reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry efforts are made to introduce a steelmaking route based on hydrogen reduction of iron ore instead of the commonly used cokebased reduction in a blast furnace. Changing fundamental pieces of steelworks affects the functions of most every system unit involved and thus warrants the question of how such a transition could optimally take place over time and no rigorous attempts have until now been made to tackle this problem mathematically. This article presents a steel plant optimization model written as a mixed-integer non-linear programming problem where aging blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces could potentially be replaced with shaft furnaces and electric arc furnaces minimizing costs or emissions over a long-term time horizon to identify possible transition pathways. Example cases show how various parameters affect optimal investment pathways stressing the necessity of appropriate planning tools for analyzing diverse cases.
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