Total Cost of Ownership Analysis for Hydrogen and Battery Powertrains: A Comparative Study in Finnish Heavy-duty Transport

The road transport sector is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, as it still largely relies on traditional powertrain solutions. While some progress has been made in the passenger car sector with the diffusion of battery electric vehicles, heavy-duty transport remains predominantly dependent on diesel internal combustion engines. This research aims to evaluate and compare three potential solutions for the decarbonisation of heavy-duty freight transport from an economic perspective: Battery Electric Trucks (BETs), Fuel Cell Electric Trucks (FCETs) and Hydrogen-fuelled Internal Combustion Engine Trucks (H2ICETs). The study focuses on the Finnish market and road network, where affordable and low-carbon electricity creates an ideal environment for the development of alternative powertrain vehicles. The analysis employs the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method, which allows for a comprehensive assessment of all cost components associated with the vehicles throughout their entire lifecycle, encompassing both initial expenses and operational costs. Among the several factors affecting the results, the impact of the three powertrain technologies on the admissible payloads has been taken into account. The study specifically focuses on the costs directly incurred by the truck owner. Additionally, to evaluate the cost effectiveness of the proposed powertrain technologies under different scenarios, a sensitivity analysis on electricity and hydrogen prices is conducted. The outcomes of this study reveal that no single powertrain solution emerges as universally optimal, as the most cost-effective choice depends strongly on the truck type and its use (i.e., daily mileage). For relatively small trucks (18 t) covering short driving distances (approximately 100 to 200 km/day), BETs prove to be the best solution due to their higher efficiency and lower vehicle costs compared to FCETs. Conversely, for larger trucks (42 and 76 t) engaged in longer hauls (>300 km/day), H2ICETs exhibit larger cost benefits due to their lower vehicle costs among the three options under investigation. Finally, for small trucks (18 t) travelling long distances (200 km/day or more), FCETs represent a competitive choice due to their high efficiency and costeffective energy storage system. Considering future advancements in FCETs and BETs in terms of improved performance and reduced investment cost, the fuel cell-based solution is expected to emerge as the best option across various combinations of truck sizes and daily mileages.