Modeling the Long-term Evolution of the Italian Power Sector: The Role of Renewable Resources and Energy Storage Facilities

The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term planning of the Italian power sector from 2021 to 2050. The key role of photovoltaic and wind technologies in combination with power-to-power systems based on hydrogen and batteries is investigated. An updated version of the OSeMOSYS tool is used, which employs a clustering method for the representation of time-varying input data. First, the potential of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) is assessed. A sensitivity analysis is also performed on the temporal resolution of the model to determine an adequate trade-off between the computation time and the accuracy of the results. Then, a technoeconomic optimization scenario is carried out, resulting in a total net present cost of about 233.7 B€. A high penetration of VRES technologies is foreseen by 2050 with a total VRES installed capacity of 272.9 GW (mainly photovoltaic and onshore wind). Batteries are found to be the preferable energy storage solution in the first part of the energy transition, while the hydrogen storage starts to be convenient from about the year 2040. Indeed, the role of hydrogen storage becomes fundamental as the VRES penetration increases thanks to its cost-effective long-term storage capability. By 2050, 74.6 % of electricity generation will be based on VRES, which will also enable a significant reduction in CO2 emissions of about 87 %.