Policy & Socio-Economics
A Cost Comparison of Various Hourly-reliable and Net-zero Hydrogen Production Pathways in the United States
Nov 2023
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) as an energy carrier may play a role in various hard-to-abate subsectors but to maximize emission reductions supplied hydrogen must be reliable low-emission and low-cost. Here we build a model that enables direct comparison of the cost of producing net-zero hourly-reliable hydrogen from various pathways. To reach net-zero targets we assume upstream and residual facility emissions are mitigated using negative emission technologies. For the United States (California Texas and New York) model results indicate nextdecade hybrid electricity-based solutions are lower cost ($2.02-$2.88/kg) than fossil-based pathways with natural gas leakage greater than 4% ($2.73-$5.94/ kg). These results also apply to regions outside of the U.S. with a similar climate and electric grid. However when omitting the net-zero emission constraint and considering the U.S. regulatory environment electricity-based production only achieves cost-competitiveness with fossil-based pathways if embodied emissions of electricity inputs are not counted under U.S. Tax Code Section 45V guidance.
Renewable Hydrogen: Modular Concepts from Production over Storage to the Consumer
Jan 2021
Publication
A simulation tool called HYDRA to optimize individual hydrogen infrastructure layouts is presented. The different electrolyzer technologies namely proton exchange membrane electrolysis anion exchange membrane electrolysis alkaline electrolysis and solid oxide electrolysis as well as hydrogen storage possibilities are described in more detail and evaluated. To illustrate the application opportunities of HYDRA three project examples are discussed. The examples include central and decentral applications while taking the usage of hydrogen into account.
A Roadmap with Strategic Policy toward Green Hydrogen Production: The Case of Iraq
Mar 2023
Publication
The study proposes a comprehensive framework to support the development of green hydrogen production including the establishment of legal and regulatory frameworks investment incentives and public-private partnerships. Using official and public data from government agencies the potential of renewable energy sources is studied and some reasonable assumptions are made so that a full study and evaluation of hydrogen production in the country can be done. The information here proves beyond a doubt that renewable energy makes a big difference in making green hydrogen. This makes the country a leader in the field of making green hydrogen. Based on what it found this research suggests a way for the country to have a green hydrogen economy by 2050. It is done in three steps: using green hydrogen as a fuel for industry using green hydrogen in fuel cells and selling hydrogen. On the other hand the research found that making green hydrogen that can be used in Iraq and other developing countries is hard. There are technological economic and social problems as well as policy consequences that need to be solved.
Multi-option Analytical Modeling of Levelised Costs Across Various Hydrogen Supply Chain Nodes
May 2024
Publication
Hydrogen is envisioned to become a fundamental energy vector for the decarbonization of energy systems. Two key factors that will define the success of hydrogen are its sustainability and competitiveness with alternative solutions. One of the many challenges for the proliferation of hydrogen is the creation of a sustainable supply chain. In this study a methodology aimed at assessing the economic feasibility of holistic hydrogen supply chains is developed. Based on the designed methodology a tool which calculates the levelized cost of hydrogen for the different stages of its supply chain: production transmission & distribution storage and conversion is proposed. Each stage is evaluated individually combining relevant technical and economic notions such as learning curves and scaling factors. Subsequently the findings from each stage are combined to assess the entire supply chain as a whole. The tool is then applied to evaluate case studies of various supply chains including large-scale remote and small-scale distributed green hydrogen supply chains as well as conventional steam methane reforming coupled with carbon capture and storage technologies. The results show that both green hydrogen supply chains and conventional methods can achieve a competitive LCOH of around €4/kg in 2030. However the key contribution of this study is the development of the tool which provides a foundation for a comprehensive evaluation of hydrogen supply chains that can be continuously improved through the inputs of additional users and further research on one or more of the interconnected stages.
The Roadmap for a Green Hydrogen Economy in Trinidad & Tobago
Nov 2022
Publication
This publication presents the results of a pre-feasibility study to introduce a green hydrogen (GH2) market in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). The study analyzed the potential supply and competitiveness of producing GH2 in T&T and the actions needed to build a foundation for producing green ammonia and methanol. The study updated previous estimates of renewable energy generation potential in the country. The study also highlighted Trinidad and Tobago's comparative advantage to produce GH2 with its ability to capitalize on existing infrastructure its know-how and capabilities and its long-standing trade relations. Lastly the study identifies demonstration projects and created a roadmap for developing a low carbon hydrogen economy in Trinidad and Tobago.
Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Deploying Hydrogen Homes: A Consumer-oriented Perspective
May 2024
Publication
As part of its efforts to secure a ‘net-zero society’ the UK government will take a strategic decision on the role of hydrogen in decarbonising homes within the next years. While scholars have recently advanced the social science research agenda on hydrogen technology acceptance studies are yet to engage with the prospective dynamics of adopting ‘hydrogen homes’. In response this study examines the perceived adoption potential of hydrogen heating and cooking technologies as evaluated through the eyes of consumer. Engaging with behavioural and market acceptance this research draws on data from a broadly nationally representative online survey to examine the influence of safety technological economic environmental and emotional factors on the domestic hydrogen transition in the UK context. The analysis follows a multi-stage empirical approach integrating findings from partial least squares structural equation and necessary condition analysis to crystallise insights on this emergent subject. At this juncture perceived adoption potential may hinge primarily on emotional environmental safety and to a lesser extent technological perspectives. However consumers have an expressed preference for hydrogen heating over hydrogen cooking with perceived boiler performance emerging as a necessary condition for enabling adoption potential. At the formative phase of the transition risks associated with energy insecurity and fuel poverty exceed concerns over purchasing and running costs. Nevertheless economic factors remain less critical during the pre-deployment phase of the innovation-decision process. Across the full sample simple slope analysis highlights the moderating effects of gender age and housing tenure. Moreover statistically significant differences from both a sufficiency- and necessity-based perspective are detected between male property owners aged 55+ and female mortgage owners 18–34 years old. By bridging the knowledge gap between social acceptance and adoption intention this contribution reinforces the need for consumer engagement in the hydrogen economy advocating for more fine-grained mixed-methods analyses of technology acceptance dynamics to support decarbonisation strategies.
Conflicts Between Economic and Low-carbon Reorientation Processes: Insights from a Contextual Analysis of Evolving Company Strategies in the United Kingdrom Petrochemical Industry (1970-2021)
Jul 2022
Publication
To situate its low-carbon transition process in longer-term real-world business contexts this article makes a longitudinal analysis of the UK petrochemical industry focusing on changing economic and socio-political environments and company strategies in the last 50 years. Using the Triple Embeddedness Framework the paper identifies two parallel and conflicting reorientation processes in the UK petrochemical industry. The first one which started in the 1970s and is driven by long-standing competitiveness problems led to retrenchment in the 1980s exit of incumbent companies (BP Shell ICI) and the entry of new firms (INEOS SABIC) in the 1990s and 2000s and diversification into upstream fossil fuel production and ethane imports in the 2010s. The second reorientation process which started in the 2010s is driven by climate change considerations and has led petrochemical firms to reluctantly explore low-carbon alternatives. Despite advancing ambitious visions and plans companies are weakly committed to low-carbon reorientation because this is layered on top of and conflicts with the deeper economically-motivated reorientation process. The paper further concludes that the industry's low-carbon plans and visions are partial because they focus more on some innovations (hydrogen-as-fuel CCS) than on other innovations (recycling bio-feedstocks synthetic feedstocks). Despite exploring alternatives firms also use political resistance strategies to hamper and delay deeper low-carbon reorientation
Are Green and Blue Hydrogen Competitive or Complementary? Insights from a Decarbonised European Power System Analysis
Jun 2023
Publication
Hydrogen will be important in decarbonized energy systems. The primary ways to produce low emission hydrogen are from renewable electricity using electrolyzers called green hydrogen and by reforming natural gas and capturing and storing the CO2 known as blue hydrogen. In this study the degrees to which blue and green hydrogen are complementary or competitive are analyzed through a sensitivity analysis on the electrolyzer costs and natural gas price. This analysis is performed on four bases: what is the cost-effective relative share between blue and green hydrogen deployment how their deployment influences the price of hydrogen how the price of CO2 changes with the deployment of these two technologies and whether infrastructure can economically be shared between these two technologies. The results show that the choice of green and blue hydrogen has a tremendous impact where an early deployment of green leads to higher hydrogen costs and CO2 prices in 2030. Allowing for blue hydrogen thus has notable benefits in 2030 giving cheaper hydrogen with smaller wider socioeconomic impacts. In the long term these competitive aspects disappear and green and blue hydrogen can coexist in the European market without negatively influencing one another.
How "Clean" is the Hydrogen Economy? Tracing the Connections Between Hydrogen and Fossil Fuels
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen is experiencing a resurgence in energy transition debates. Before representing a solution however the existing hydrogen economy is still a climate change headache: over 99 % of production depends on fossil fuels oil refining accounts for 42 % of demand and its transportation is intertwined with fossil infrastructure like natural gas pipelines. This article investigates the path-dependent dynamics shaping the hydrogen economy and its interconnections with the oil and gas industry. It draws on the global production networks (GPN) approach and political economy research to provide a comprehensive review of current and prospective enduses of hydrogen modes of transport networks of industrial actors and state strategies along the major production facilities and holders of intellectual property rights. The results presented in this article suggest that the superimposition of private agendas may jeopardise the viability of future energy systems and requires counterbalancing forces to override the negative consequences of path-dependent energy transitions.
Near-term Infrastructure Rollout and Investment Strategies for Net-zero Hydrogen Supply Chains
Feb 2024
Publication
Low-carbon hydrogen plays a key role in European industrial decarbonization strategies. This work investigates the cost-optimal planning of European low-carbon hydrogen supply chains in the near term (2025–2035) comparing several hydrogen production technologies and considering multiple spatial scales. We focus on mature hydrogen production technologies: steam methane reforming of natural gas biomethane reforming biomass gasification and water electrolysis. The analysis includes carbon capture and storage for natural gas and biomass-derived hydrogen. We formulate and solve a linear optimization model that determines the costoptimal type size and location of hydrogen production and transport technologies in compliance with selected carbon emission targets including the EU fit for 55 target and an ambitious net-zero emissions target for 2035. Existing steam methane reforming capacities are considered and optimal carbon and biomass networks are designed. Findings identify biomass-based hydrogen production as the most cost-efficient hydrogen technology. Carbon capture and storage is installed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions while electrolysis remains costdisadvantageous and is deployed on a limited scale across all considered sensitivity scenarios. Our analysis highlights the importance of spatial resolution revealing that national perspectives underestimate costs by neglecting domestic transport needs and regional resource constraints emphasizing the necessity for highly decarbonized infrastructure designs aligned with renewable resource availabilities.
Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Energy Systems: A Global Perspective
Aug 2024
Publication
In the realm of renewable energy the integration of wind power and hydrogen energy systems represents a promising avenue towards environmental sustainability. However the development of cost-effective hydrogen energy storage solutions is crucial to fully realize the potential of hydrogen as a renewable energy source. By combining wind power generation with hydrogen storage a comprehensive hydrogen energy system can be established. This study aims to devise a physiologically inspired optimization approach for designing a standalone wind power producer that incorporates a hydrogen energy system on a global scale. The optimization process considers both total cost and capacity loss to determine the optimal configuration for the system. The optimal setup for an off-grid solution involves the utilization of eight distinct types of compact horizontal-axis wind turbines. Additionally a sensitivity analysis is conducted by varying component capital costs to assess their impact on overall cost and load loss. Simulation results indicate that at a 15% loss the cost of energy (COE) is $1.3772 while at 0% loss it stands at $1.6908. Capital expenses associated with wind turbines and hydrogen storage systems significantly contribute to the overall cost. Consequently the wind turbine-hydrogen storage system emerges as the most cost-effective and reliable option due to its low cost of energy.
Green Hydrogen and its Unspoken Challenges for Energy Justice
Oct 2024
Publication
Green hydrogen is often promoted as a key facilitator for the clean energy transition but its implementation raises concerns around energy justice. This paper examines the socio-political and techno-economic challenges that green hydrogen projects may pose to the three tenets of energy justice: distributive procedural and recognition justice. From a socio-political perspective the risk of neocolonial resource extraction uneven distribution of benefits exclusion of local communities from decision-making and disregard for indigenous rights and cultures threaten all three justice tenets. Techno-economic factors such as water scarcity land disputes and resource-related conflicts in potential production hotspots further jeopardise distributive and recognition justice. The analysis framed by an adapted PEST model reveals that while green hydrogen holds promise for sustainable development its implementation must proactively address these justice challenges. Failure to do so could perpetuate injustices exploitation and marginalisation of vulnerable communities undermining the sustainability goals it aims to achieve. The paper highlights the need for inclusive and equitable approaches that respect local sovereignty integrate diverse stakeholders and ensure fair access and benefit-sharing. Only by centring justice considerations can the transition to green hydrogen catalyse positive social change and realise its full potential as a driver of sustainable energy systems.
Modelling Flexibility Requirements in Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: The Role of Conventional Flexibility and Sector Coupling Options in the European 2050 Energy System
Feb 2024
Publication
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reaffirmed the importance of scaling up renewable energy to decarbonise Europe’s economy while rapidly reducing its exposure to foreign fossil fuel suppliers. Therefore the question of sources of flexibility to support a fully decarbonised European energy system is becoming even more critical in light of a renewable-dominated energy system. We developed and used a Pan-European energy system model to systematically assess and quantify sources of flexibility to meet deep decarbonisation targets. The electricity supply sector and electricity-based end-use technologies are crucial in achieving deep decarbonisation. Other low-carbon energy sources like biomethane hydrogen synthetic e-fuels and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage will also play a role. To support a fully decarbonised European energy system by 2050 both temporal and spatial flexibility will be needed. Spatial flexibility achieved through investments in national electricity networks and cross-border interconnections is crucial to support the aggressive roll-out of variable renewable energy sources. Cross-border trade in electricity is expected to increase and in deep decarbonisation scenarios the electricity transmission capacity will be larger than that of natural gas. Hydrogen storage and green hydrogen production will play a key role in providing traditional inter-seasonal flexibility and intraday flexibility will be provided by a combination of electrical energy storage hydrogen-based storage solutions (e.g. liquid H2 and pressurised storage) and hybrid heat pumps. Hydrogen networks and storage will become more critical as we move towards the highest decarbonisation scenario. Still the need for natural gas networks and storage will decrease substantially.
Life Cycle Assessments Use in Hydrogen-related Policies: The Case for a Harmonized Methodology Addressing Multifunctionality
May 2024
Publication
Legislation regulating the sustainability requirements for hydrogen technologies relies more and more on life cycle assessments (LCAs). Due to different scopes and development processes different pieces of EU legislation refer to different LCA methodologies with differences in the way multifunctional processes (i.e. co-productions recycling and energy recovery) are treated. These inconsistencies arise because incentive mechanisms are not standardized across sectors even though the end product hydrogen remains the same. The goal of this paper is to compare the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of hydrogen from four production pathways depending on the multifunctional approach prescribed by the different EU policies (e.g. using substitution or allocation). The study reveals a large variation in the LCA results. For instance the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen co-produced with methanol is found to vary from 1 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H2 (when mass allocation is considered) to 11 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H2 (when economic allocation is used). These inconsistencies could affect the market (e.g. hydrogen from a certain pathway could be considered sustainable or unsustainable depending on the approach) and the environment (e.g. pathways that do not lead to a global emission reduction could be promoted). To mitigate these potential negative effects we urge for harmonized and strict guidelines to assess the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen technologies in an EU policy context. Harmonization should cover international policies too to avoid the same risks when hydrogen will be traded based on its GHG emissions. The appropriate methodological approach for each production pathway should be chosen by policymakers in collaboration with the LCA community and stakeholders from the industry based on the potential market and environmental consequences of such choice.
Risky Business? Evaluating Hydrogen Partnerships Established by Germany, The Netherlands, and Belgium
Dec 2023
Publication
Following the introduction of the EU’s Hydrogen Strategy in 2020 as part of the European Green Deal some EU member states have deployed a very active hydrogen diplomacy. Germany The Netherlands and Belgium have been the most active ones establishing no less than 40 bilateral hydrogen trade partnerships with 30 potential export countries in the last three years. However concerns have been voiced about whether such hydrogen trade relationships can be economically feasible geopolitically wise environmentally sustainable and socially just. This article therefore evaluates these partnerships considering three risk dimensions: economic political and sustainability (covering both environmental and justice) risks. The analysis reveals that the selection of partner countries entails significant trade-offs. Four groups of partner countries can be identified based on their respective risk profile: “Last Resorts” “Volatile Ventures” “Strategic Gambits” and “Trusted Friends”. Strikingly less than one-third of the agreements are concluded with countries that fall within the “Trusted Friends” category which have the lowest overall risk profile. These findings show the need for policy makers to think much more strategically about which partnerships to pursue and to confront tough choices about which risks and trade-offs they are willing to accept.
Stakeholder Perspectives on the Scale-up of Green Hydrogen and Electrolyzers
Nov 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen is a promising alternative to fossil fuels. However current production capacities for electrolyzers and green hydrogen are not in line with national political goals and projected demand. Considering these issues we conducted semi-structured interviews to determine the narratives of different stakeholders during this transformation as well as challenges and opportunities for the green hydrogen value chain. We interviewed eight experts with different roles along the green hydrogen value chain ranging from producers and consumers of green hydrogen to electrolyzer manufacturers and consultants as well as experts from the political sphere. Most experts see the government as necessary for scale-up by setting national capacity targets policy support and providing subsidies. However the experts also accuse the governments of delaying development through overregulation and long implementation times for regulations. The main challenges that were identified are the current lack of renewable electricity and demand for green hydrogen. Demand for green hydrogen is influenced by supply costs which partly depend on prices for electrolyzers. However one key takeaway of the interviews is the skeptical assessments by the experts on the currently discussed estimates for price reduction potential of electrolyzers. While demand supply and prices are all factors that influence each other they result in feedback loops in investment decisions for the energy and manufacturing industries. A second key takeaway is that according to the experts current investment decisions in new production capacities are not solely dependent on short-term financial gains but also based on expected first mover advantages. These include experience and market share which are seen as factors for opportunities for future financial gains. Summarized the results present several challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen and electrolyzers and how to address them effectively. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the emerging green hydrogen value chain.
Hydrogen as a Transition Tool in a Fossil Fuel Resource Region: Taking China’s Coal Capital Shanxi as an Example
Aug 2023
Publication
Because of the pressure to meet carbon neutrality targets carbon reduction has become a challenge for fossil fuel resource-based regions. Even though China has become the most active country in carbon reduction its extensive energy supply and security demand make it difficult to turn away from its dependence on coal-based fossil energy. This paper analyzes the Chinese coal capital—Shanxi Province—to determine whether the green low-carbon energy transition should be focused on coal resource areas. In these locations the selection and effect of transition tools are key to ensuring that China meets its carbon reduction goal. Due to the time window of clean coal utilization the pressure of local governments and the survival demands of local high energy consuming enterprises Shanxi Province chose hydrogen as its important transition tool. A path for developing hydrogen resources has been established through lobbying and corporative influence on local and provincial governments. Based on such policy guidance Shanxi has realized hydrogen applications in large-scale industrial parks regional public transport and the iron and steel industry. This paper distinguishes between the development strategies of gray and green hydrogen. It shows that hydrogen can be an effective development model for resource-based regions as it balances economic stability and energy transition.
Monitored Data and Social Perceptions Analysis of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuelled Buses in Urban and Suburban Areas
Jul 2023
Publication
Electrification of the transportation sector is one of the main drivers in the decarbonization of energy and mobility systems and it is a way to ensure security of energy supply. Public bus fleets can assist in achieving fast reduction of CO2 emissions. This article provides an analysis of a unique real-world dataset to support decision makers in the decarbonization of public fleets and interlink it with the social acceptance of drivers. Data was collected from 21 fuel cell and electric buses. The tank-to-wheel efficiency results of fuel cell electric buses (FCEB) are much lower than that of battery electric buses (BEB) and there is a higher variation in consumption for BEBs compared to FCEBs. Both technologies permit a strong reduction in CO2 emissions compared to conventional buses. There is a high level of acceptance of drivers which are likely to support the transition towards zero-emission buses introduced by the management.
Optimal RES Integration for Matching the Italian Hydrogen Strategy Requirements
Oct 2023
Publication
In light of the Italian Hydrogen Roadmap goals the 2030 national RES installation targets need to be redefined. This work aims to propose a more appropriate RES installation deployment on national scale by matching the electrolysers capacity and the green hydrogen production goals. The adopted approach envisages the power-to-gas value chain priority for the green hydrogen production as a means of balancing system. Thus the 2030 Italian energy system has been modelled and several RES installation scenarios have been simulated via EnergyPLAN software. The simulation outputs have been integrated with a breakdown model for the overgeneration RES share detection in compliance with the PV dispatching priority of the Italian system. Therefore the best installation solutions have been detected via multi-objective optimization model based on the green hydrogen production additional installation cost critical energy excess along with the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH). Higher wind technology installations provide more competitive energy and hydrogen costs. The most suitable scenarios show that the optimal LCOH and hydrogen production values respectively equal to 3.6 €/kg and 223 ktonH2 arise from additional PV/wind installations of 35 GW on top of the national targets.
Techno-Economic Analysis of Combined Production of Wind Energy and Green Hydrogen on the Northern Coast of Mauritania
Sep 2024
Publication
Green hydrogen is becoming increasingly popular with academics institutions and governments concentrating on its development efficiency improvement and cost reduction. The objective of the Ministry of Petroleum Mines and Energy is to achieve a 35% proportion of renewable energy in the overall energy composition by the year 2030 followed by a 50% commitment by 2050. This goal will be achieved through the implementation of feed-in tariffs and the integration of independent power generators. The present study focused on the economic feasibility of green hydrogen and its production process utilizing renewable energy resources on the northern coast of Mauritania. The current investigation also explored the wind potential along the northern coast of Mauritania spanning over 600 km between Nouakchott and Nouadhibou. Wind data from masts Lidar stations and satellites at 10 and 80 m heights from 2022 to 2023 were used to assess wind characteristics and evaluate five turbine types for local conditions. A comprehensive techno-economic analysis was carried out at five specific sites encompassing the measures of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized cost of green hydrogen (LCOGH) as well as sensitivity analysis and economic performance indicators. The results showed an annual average wind speed of 7.6 m/s in Nouakchott to 9.8 m/s in Nouadhibou at 80 m. The GOLDWIND 3.0 MW model showed the highest capacity factor of 50.81% due to its low cut-in speed of 2.5 m/s and its rated wind speed of 10.5 to 11 m/s. The NORDEX 4 MW model forecasted an annual production of 21.97 GWh in Nouadhibou and 19.23 GWh in Boulanoir with the LCOE ranging from USD 5.69 to 6.51 cents/kWh below the local electricity tariff and an LCOGH of USD 1.85 to 2.11 US/kg H2 . Multiple economic indicators confirmed the feasibility of wind energy and green hydrogen projects in assessed sites. These results boosted the confidence of the techno-economic model highlighting the resilience of future investments in these sustainable energy infrastructures. Mauritania’s north coast has potential for wind energy aiding green hydrogen production for energy goals.
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