Policy & Socio-Economics
Is Blue Hydrogen a Bridging Technology? - The Limits of a CO2 Price and the Role of State-induced Price Components for Green Hydrogen Production in Germany
Jun 2022
Publication
The European Commission aims to establish green hydrogen produced through electrolysis using renewable electricity and in a transition phase hydrogen produced in a low-carbon process or blue hydrogen. In an extensive cost analysis for Germany up to 2050 based on scenario data and a component-based learning rate approach we find that blue hydrogen is likely to establish itself as the most cost-effective option and not only as a medium-term low-carbon alternative. We find that expected CO2 prices below €480/tCO2 have a limited impact on the economic feasibility of electrolysis and show that substantial increases in excise tax on natural gas could lead blue hydrogen to reach a sufficient cost level for electrolysed hydrogen. Unless alternatives for green hydrogen supply through infrastructure and imports become available at lower cost electrolysed hydrogen may require long-term subsidies. As blue hydrogen comprises fugitive methane emissions and financing needs for green hydrogen support have implications for society and competition in the internal market we suggest that policymakers rely on hydrogen for decarbonising only essential energy applications. We recommend further investigations into the cost of hydrogen infrastructure and import options as well as efficient subsidy frameworks.
Green Hydrogen Production and Use in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Least-cost Geospatial Modelling Approach Applied to Kenya
May 2023
Publication
With the rising threat of climate change green hydrogen is increasingly seen as the high-capacity energy storage and transport medium of the future. This creates an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to leverage their high renewable energy potential to produce use and export low-cost green hydrogen creating environmental and economic development benefits. While identifying ideal locations for green hydrogen production is critical for countries when defining their green hydrogen strategies there has been a paucity of adequate geospatial planning approaches suitable to low- and middle-income countries. It is essential for these countries to identify green hydrogen production sites which match demand to expected use cases such that their strategies are economically sustainable. This paper therefore develops a novel geospatial cost modelling method to optimize the location of green hydrogen production across different use cases with a focus on suitability to low- and middle-income countries. This method is applied in Kenya to investigate the potential hydrogen supply chain for three use cases: ammonia-based fertilizer freight transport and export. We find hydrogen production costs of e3.7–9.9/kgH2 are currently achievable across Kenya depending on the production location chosen. The cheapest production locations are identified to the south and south-east of Lake Turkana. We show that ammonia produced in Kenya can be cost-competitive given the current energy crisis and that Kenya could export hydrogen to Rotterdam with costs of e7/kgH2 undercutting current market prices regardless of the carrier medium. With expected techno-economic improvements hydrogen production costs across Kenya could drop to e1.8–3.0/kgH2 by 2030.
Economic and Technical Analysis of Power to Gas Factory Taking Karamay as an Example
May 2022
Publication
Power to gas (PTG) refers to the technology of converting power into energy-storage gas which can absorb excess power when there is excess power and release energy-storage gas when needed. Based on the carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emission of Karamay City in Northwest China this study designed a process flow of the CO2 absorption process and the hydrogen and CO2 methanation process in PTG technology. The results show that the efficiency of the CO2 absorption process was 91.5% and the methanation efficiency was 77.5%. The heat recovery module was set during the process and the total heat recovered was 17.85 MW. The cost of producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) in the PTG factory was 1782 USD/ton. In terms of cost the cost of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water accounted for the largest proportion. In terms of product profit the sale of pure oxygen was the largest part of the profit. At present the carbon emission reduction index profit brought by SNG production accounted for a small proportion. In the future with technological progress industrial upgrading and the improvement in the carbon trading market PTG technology is expected to become one of the ways to achieve carbon-emission-reduction targets.
Next Steps for the Gas Grid- Future Gas Series Part 1
Sep 2014
Publication
Policy Connect Carbon Connect and sector and Parliamentary experts have collaborated to present options for the gas grid to play a useful role in the UK’s transition to a low carbon energy system through the widespread use of low carbon gas. The report calls on Government to support the transition to a more flexible gas grid that uses various forms of gas including low carbon gases such as hydrogen and biomethane.
Building the Green Hydrogen Market - Current State and Outlook on Green Hydrogen Demand and Electrolyzer Manufacturing
Jul 2022
Publication
Over the past two years requirements to meet climate targets have been intensified. In addition to the tightening of the climate targets and the demand for net-zero achievement by as early as 2045 there have been discussions on implementing and realizing these goals. Hydrogen has emerged as a promising climate-neutral energy carrier. Thus over the last 1.5 years more than 25 countries have published hydrogen roadmaps. Furthermore various studies by different authorities have been released to support the development of a hydrogen economy. This paper examines published studies and hydrogen country roadmaps as part of a meta-analysis. Furthermore a market analysis of electrolyzer manufacturers is conducted. The prospected demand for green hydrogen from various studies is compared to electrolyzer manufacturing capacities and selected green hydrogen projects to identify potential market ramp-up scenarios and to evaluate if green hydrogen demand forecasts can be filled.
Roadmap to Achieving Sustainable Development via Green Hydrogen
Jan 2023
Publication
The conversion to renewable energy can be achieved when cities and communities start to depend on sustainable resources capable of providing for the basic needs of the community along with a reduction in the daily problems and issues that people face. These issues such as poverty hunger sanitation and economic difficulties are highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aim to limit and eradicate these problems along with other environmental obstacles including climate change and Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). These SDGs containing 17 goals target each sector and provide propositions to solve such devastating problems. Hydrogen contributes to the targets of these sustainable developments since through its implementation in different industries the levels of GHG will drop and thus contribute to the climate change which Earth is facing. Further through the usage of such resources many job opportunities will also be developed thus enhancing the economy and lifting the status of society. This paper classifies the four different types of hydrogen and outlines the differences between them. The paper then emphasizes the importance of green hydrogen use within the shipping industry transportation and infrastructure along with economic and social development through job opportunities. Furthermore this paper provides case studies tackling green hydrogen status in the United Kingdom United States of America and European Union as well as Africa United Arab of Emirates and Asia. Finally challenges and recommendations concerning the green hydrogen industry are addressed. This paper aims to relate the use of green hydrogen to the direct and indirect goals of SDG.
Clean Energy Futures: An Australian Based Foresight Study
Aug 2022
Publication
Political decarbonisation commitments and outcompeting renewable electricity costs are disrupting energy systems. This foresight study prepares stakeholders for this dynamic reactive change by examining visions that constitute a probable plausible and possible component of future energy systems. Visions were extrapolated through an expert review of energy technologies and Australian case studies. ‘Probable–Abundant’ envisages a high penetration of solar and wind with increased value of balancing services: batteries pumped hydro and transmission. This vision is exemplified by the South Australian grid where variable and distributed sources lead generation. ‘Plausible–Traded’ envisages power and power fuel exports given hydrogen and high-voltage direct-current transmission advances reflected by public and private sector plans to leverage rich natural resources for national and intercontinental exchanges. ‘Possible–Zero’ envisages the application of carbon removal and nuclear technologies in response to the escalating challenge of deep decarbonisation. The Australian critical minerals strategy signals adaptations of high-emission industries to shifting energy resource values. These visions contribute a flexible accessible framework for diverse stakeholders to discuss uncertain energy systems changes and consider issues from new perspectives. Appraisal of preferred futures allows stakeholders to recognise observed changes as positive or negative and may lead to new planning aspirations.
Cost and Capacity Requirements of Electrification or Renewable Gas Transition Options that Decarbonize Building Heating in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia
Jun 2022
Publication
Northern countries face a unique challenge in decarbonizing heating demands. This study compares two pathways to reduce carbon emissions from building heating by (1) replacing natural gas heaters with electric heat pumps or (2) replacing natural gas with renewable gas. Optimal annual system cost and capacity requirements for Metro Vancouver Canada are assessed for each pathway under nine scenarios. Results show that either pathway can be lower cost but the range of costs is more narrow for the renewable gas pathway. System cost is sensitive to heat demand with colder temperatures favouring the renewable gas pathway and milder temperatures favouring the electrification pathway. These results highlight the need for a better understanding of heating profiles and associated energy system requirements.
Policy and Pricing Barriers to Steel Industry Decarbonisation: A UK Case Study
Aug 2022
Publication
Global climate targets have highlighted the need for a whole-systems approach to decarbonisation one that includes targeted national policy and industry specific change. Situated within this context this research examines policy and pricing barriers to decarbonisation of the UK steel industry. Here the techno-economic modelling of UK green steelmaking provides a technical contribution to analysis of pricing barriers and policy solutions to these barriers in the UK specifically but also to the broader industrial decarbonisation literature. Estimated costs and associated emissions projections reveal relevant opportunities for UK steel in contributing to national climate and emissions targets. Modelling demonstrates that green steelmaking options have been put at price disadvantages compared to emissions-intensive incumbents and that fossil-free hydrogen-based steel-making has lower emissions and lower levelised costs than carbon capture and storage options including top gas recycling blast furnace (TGR-BF) with CCS and HIsarna smelter with CCS. Two primary policy recommendations are made: the removal of carbon pricing discrepancies and reductions in industrial electricity prices that would level the playing field for green steel producers in the UK. The research also provides relevant policy considerations for the international community in other industrial decarbonisation efforts and the policies that must accompany these decarbonisation choices.
Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Neutrality Strategies on Gas Infrastructure and Costs: Implications from Case Studies Based on French and German GHG-neutral Scenarios
Sep 2022
Publication
The European Union’s target to reach greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 calls for a sharp decrease in the consumption of natural gas. This study assesses impacts of greenhouse gas neutrality on the gas system taking France and Germany as two case studies which illustrate a wide range of potential developments within the European Union. Based on a review of French and German GHG-neutral scenarios it explores impacts on gas infrastructure and estimates the changes in end-user methane price considering a business-as-usual and an optimised infrastructure pathway. Our results show that gas supply and demand radically change by mid-century across various scenarios. Moreover the analysis suggests that deep transformations of the gas infrastructure are required and that according to the existing pricing mechanisms the end-user price of methane will increase driven by the switch to low-carbon gases and intensified by infrastructure costs.
Hydrogen Deep Ocean Link: A Global Sustainable Interconnected Energy Grid<br/><br/><br/>
Mar 2022
Publication
The world is undergoing a substantial energy transition with an increasing share of intermittent sources of energy on the grid which is increasing the challenges to operate the power grid reliably. An option that has been receiving much focus after the COVID pandemic is the development of a hydrogen economy. Challenges for a hydrogen economy are the high investment costs involved in compression storage and long-distance transportation. This paper analyses an innovative proposal for the creation of hydrogen ocean links. It intends to fill existing gaps in the creation of a hydrogen economy with the increase in flexibility and viability for hydrogen production consumption compression storage and transportation. The main concept behind the proposals presented in this paper consists of using the fact that the pressure in the deep sea is very high which allows a thin and cheap HDPE tank to store and transport large amounts of pressurized hydrogen in the deep sea. This is performed by replacing seawater with pressurized hydrogen and maintaining the pressure in the pipes similar to the outside pressure. Hydrogen Deep Ocean Link has the potential of increasing the interconnectivity of different regional energy grids into a global sustainable interconnected energy system.
Going Global: An Update on Hydrogen Valleys and their Role in the New Hydrogen Economy
Sep 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is a key cornerstone of the green transformation of the global economy and a major lever to diversify energy supplies and accelerate the clean energy transition. Hydrogen will be essential to replace natural gas coal and oil in hard-to-decarbonise sectors in industry mobility and energy. Hydrogen Valleys will become an important cornerstone in producing importing transporting and using clean hydrogen in Europe.
Powering Europe with North Sea Offshore Wind: The Impact of Hydrogen Investments on Grid Infrastructure and Power Prices
Oct 2022
Publication
Hydrogen will be a central cross-sectoral energy carrier in the decarbonization of the European energy system. This paper investigates how a large-scale deployment of green hydrogen production affects the investments in transmission and generation towards 2060 analyzes the North Sea area with the main offshore wind projects and assesses the development of an offshore energy hub. Results indicate that the hydrogen deployment has a tremendous impact on the grid development in Europe and in the North Sea. Findings indicate that total power generation capacity increases around 50%. The offshore energy hub acts mainly as a power transmission asset leads to a reduction in total generation capacity and is central to unlock the offshore wind potential in the North Sea. The effect of hydrogen deployment on power prices is multifaceted. In regions where power prices have typically been lower than elsewhere in Europe it is observed that hydrogen increases the power price considerably. However as hydrogen flexibility relieves stress in high-demand periods for the grid power prices decrease in average for some countries. This suggests that while the deployment of green hydrogen will lead to a significant increase in power demand power prices will not necessarily experience a large increase.
Economic Feasibility of Green Hydrogen in Providing Flexibility to Medium-voltage Distribution Grids in the Presence of Local-heat Systems
Nov 2022
Publication
The recent strong increase in the penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in medium-voltage distribution grids (MVDNs) has raised the need for congestion management in such grids as they were not designed for this new condition. This paper examines to what extent producing green hydrogen through electrolyzers can profitably contribute to congestion alleviation in MVDNs in the presence of high amounts of RES as well as flexible consumers of electricity and a local heat system. To address this issue an incentive-based method for improving flexibility in MVDNs is used which is based on a single-leader–multiple-followers game formulated by bi-level mathematical programming. At the upper level the distribution system operator who is the leader of this game determines dynamic prices as incentives at each node based on the levels of generation and load. Next at the lower level providers of flexibility including producers using electrolyzers price-responsive power consumers heat consumers as well as heat producers respond to these incentives by reshaping their output and consumption patterns. The model is applied to a region in the North of The Netherlands. The obtained results demonstrate that converting power to hydrogen can be an economically efficient way to reduce congestion in MVDNs when there is a high amount of RES. However the economic value of electrolyzers as providers of flexibility to MVDNs decreases when more other options for flexibility provision exist.
Review of the Effects of Fossil Fuels and the Need for a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Policy in Malaysia
Feb 2023
Publication
The world has relied on fossil fuel energy for a long time producing many adverse effects. Long-term fossil fuel dependency has increased carbon emissions and accelerated climate change. In addition fossil fuels are also depleting and will soon be very costly. Moreover the expensive national electricity grid has yet to reach rural areas and will be cut off in inundation areas. As such alternative and carbon-free hydrogen fuel cell energy is highly recommended as it solves these problems. The reviews find that (i) compared to renewable energy such as solar biomass and hydropower a fuel cell does not require expensive transmission through an energy grid and is carbon-free and hence it is a faster agent to decelerate climate change; (ii) fuel cell technologies have reached an optimum level due to the high-efficiency production of energy and they are environmentally friendly; (iii) the absence of a policy on hydrogen fuel cells will hinder investment from private companies as they are not adequately regulated. It is thus recommended that countries embarking on hydrogen fuel cell development have a specific policy in place to allow the government to fund and regulate hydrogen fuel cells in the energy generation mix. This is essential as it provides the basis for alternative energy governance development and management of a country.
Moving Toward the Low-carbon Hydrogen Economy: Experiences and Key Learnings from National Case Studies
Sep 2022
Publication
The urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5°C Global Warming has spurred renewed interest in hydrogen to complement electrification for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on estimates of future hydrogen demand optimization of infrastructure for hydrogen production transport and storage development of viable business cases and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany the UK the Netherlands Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the intermediate future and is complementary to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning governance and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets.
Just Energy Transition: Learning from the Past for a More Just and Sustainable Hydrogen Transition in West Africa
Dec 2022
Publication
The rising demand for energy and the aim of moving away from fossil fuels and to low-carbon power have led many countries to move to alternative sources including solar energy wind geothermal energy biomass and hydrogen. Hydrogen is often considered a “missing link” in guaranteeing the energy transition providing storage and covering the volatility and intermittency of renewable energy generation. However due to potential injustice with regard to the distribution of risks benefits and costs (i.e. in regard to competing for land use) the large-scale deployment of hydrogen is a contested policy issue. This paper draws from a historical analysis of past energy projects to contribute to a more informed policy-making process toward a more just transition to the hydrogen economy. We perform a systematic literature review to identify relevant conflict factors that can influence the outcome of hydrogen energy transition projects in selected Economic Community of West African States countries namely Nigeria and Mali. To better address potential challenges policymakers must not only facilitate technology development access and market structures for hydrogen energy policies but also focus on energy access to affected communities. Further research should monitor hydrogen implementation with a special focus on societal impacts in producing countries.
Paving the Way: Analysing Energy Transition Pathways and Green Hydrogen Exports in Developing Countries - The Case of Algeria
Apr 2024
Publication
The measures needed to limit global warming pose a particular challenge to current fossil fuel exporters who must not only decarbonise their local energy systems but also compensate for the expected decline in fossil fuel revenues. One possibility is seen in the export of green hydrogen. Using Algeria as a case study this paper analyses how different levels of ambition in hydrogen exports energy efficiency and fuel switching affect the costoptimal expansion of the power sector for a given overall emissions reduction path. Despite falling costs for photovoltaics and wind turbines the results indicate that in countries with very low natural gas prices such as Algeria a fully renewable electricity system by 2050 is unlikely without appropriate policy measures. The expansion of renewable energy should therefore start early given the high annual growth rates required which will be reinforced by additional green hydrogen exports. In parallel energy efficiency is a key factor as it directly mitigates CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and reduces domestic electricity demand which could instead be used for hydrogen production. Integrating electrolysers into the power system could potentially help to reduce specific costs through load shifting. Overall it seems advisable to analyse hydrogen exports together with local decarbonisation in order to better understand their interactions and to reduce emissions as efficiently as possible. These results and the methodology could be transferred to other countries that want to become green hydrogen exporters in the future and are therefore a useful addition for researchers and policy makers.
Case Studies towards Green Transition in EU Regions: Smart Specialisation for Transformative Innovation
Oct 2022
Publication
This report analyses five case study reports in-depth across five EU countries as part of a broader analytical and critical exercise. This analytical work seeks to contribute to the development of new models for regional and local authorities aiming to boost support for Green Transition of their economies through smarter innovation policies using the smart specialisation (S3) approach. The work covered five regions from across the European Union representing a diversity of approaches to using S3 for Green Transition: the Basque Country in Spain the Centro region in Portugal the region of East and North Finland the region of Western Macedonia in Greece and the region of West Netherlands. The case studies included in this report consists of three sections on (i) Profile of the region and key development challenges; (ii) Innovation strategies and policies for green transition: incorporating societal challenges; (iii) Understanding and monitoring innovationled green transition. Drawing together the different elements presented the conclusion provides a summary overview of the case and the authors’ opinion on it.
Evaluating Partners for Renewable Energy Trading: A Multidimensional Framework and Tool
Apr 2024
Publication
The worsening climate crisis has increased the urgency of transitioning energy systems from fossil fuels to renewable sources. However many industrialized countries are struggling to meet their growing demand for renewable energy (RE) through domestic production alone and therefore seek to import additional RE using carriers such as hydrogen ammonia or metals. The pressing question for RE importers is therefore how to select trading partners i.e. RE exporting countries. Recent research has identified a plethora of different selection criteria reflecting the complexity of energy systems and international cooperation. However there is little guidance on how to reduce this complexity to more manageable levels as well as a lack of tools for effective partner evaluation. This article aims to fill these gaps. It proposes a new multidimensional framework for evaluating and comparing potential RE trading partners based on four dimensions: economy and technology environment and development regulation and governance and innovation and cooperation. Focusing on Germany as an RE importer an exploratory factor analysis is used to identify a consolidated set of composite selection criteria across these dimensions. The results suggest that Germany’s neighboring developed countries and current net energy exporters such as Canada and Australia are among the most attractive RE trading partners for Germany. A dashboard tool has been developed to provide the framework and composite criteria including adjustable weights to reflect the varying preferences of decision-makers and stakeholders. The framework and the dashboard can provide helpful guidance and transparency for partner selection processes facilitating the creation of RE trade networks that are essential for a successful energy transition.
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