Renewable Hydrogen Trade, in a Global Decarbonised Energy System

Renewable hydrogen has emerged as a potentially critical energy carrier for achieving climate change mitigation goals. International trade could play a key role in meeting hydrogen demand in a globally decarbonized energy system. To better understand this role, we have developed a modelling framework that incorporates hydrogen supply and demand curves and a market equilibrium model to maximize social welfare. Applying this framework, we investigate two scenarios: an unrestricted trade scenario where hydrogen trade is allowed between all regions globally, and a regional independence scenario where trade is restricted to be intra-regional only. Under the unrestricted trade scenario, global hydrogen demand could reach 234 Mt by 2050, with 31.2% met through international trade. Key trade routes identified include North Africa to Europe, the Middle East to Developing Asia, and South America to Japan and South Korea. In the regional independence scenario, most regions could meet their demand domestically, except for Japan and South Korea due to self-insufficiency. Finally, this analysis reveals that producers in North Africa and South America are likely to gain more economic value from international trade compared to other producing regions. The results offer key insights for policymakers and investors for shaping future hydrogen trade policies and investment decisions.