Shifting to Low-carbon Hydrogen Production Supports Job Creation but Does Not Gurantee a Just Transition

Transitioning from carbon-intensive steam methane reforming to low-carbon hydrogen production is essential for decarbonizing the European industrial sector. However, the employment impact of such a transition remains unclear. Here we estimate the effects using a transition pathways optimization model and industrial survey data. The results show that an electrolysis-based hydrogen sector transition would create 40,000 jobs in the hydrogen sector by 2050. However, these jobs are not equally distributed, with Western Europe hosting the largest share (40%) and 20% of current hydrogen-producing regions experiencing net job decreases. Even after accounting for renewable energy jobs created by electrolysis-driven electricity demand growth, the 2050 low-carbon hydrogen workforce would provide only 10% of the jobs currently offered by European fossil fuel production. Numerous uncertainties and regional development inequities suggest the need for sector-diversified workforce transition plans and training programs to foster skills suited to multiple low-carbon opportunities.