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How Can Green Hydrogen from North Africa Support EU Decarbonization? Scenario Analyses on Competitive Pathways for Trade

Abstract

The carbon-neutrality target set by the European Union for 2050 drives the increasing relevance of green hydrogen as key player in the energy transition. This work uses the JRC-EU-TIMES energy system model to assess opportunities and challenges for green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe, analysing to what extent it can support its decarbonization. An important novelty is addressing uncertainty regarding hydrogen economy development. Alternative scenarios are built considering volumes available for import, production costs and transport options, affecting hydrogen cost-effectiveness. Both pipelines and ships are modelled assuming favourable market conditions and pessimistic ones. From 2040 on, all available North African hydrogen is imported regardless of its costs. In Europe this imported hydrogen is mainly converted into synfuels and heat. The study aims to support policymakers to implement effective strategies, focusing on the crucial role of green hydrogen in the decarbonization process, if new competitive cooperations are developed.

Funding source: The authors acknowledge the Research Fund for the Italian Electrical System (under the Contract Agreement between RSE S.p.A. (Milan, Italy) and the Italian Ministry of Economic Development - General Directorate for the Electricity Market, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, Nuclear Energy, in compliance with the Decree of April 16th, 2018), for financing the work of Maria Cristina Pinto and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT I.P) for funding CENSE (UIDB/04085/2020 - DOI 10.54499/UIDB/04085/2020 and UIDP/ 04085/2020 - DOI 10.54499/UIDP/04085/2020) and Patrícia Fortes research (2020.00038.CEECIND). This work is also co-financed by the PRR - Recovery and Resilience Plan by the European Union (Mobilizing Agenda "Moving2Neutrality" - Project no. 32, with reference no. C644927397-00000038, Portugal).
Related subjects: Policy & Socio-Economics
Countries: Italy ; Portugal
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/content/journal6027
2024-07-06
2024-11-14
/content/journal6027
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