Renewable Energy Pathways toward Accelerating Hydrogen Fuel Production: Evidence from Global Hydrogen Modeling

Fossil fuel consumption has triggered worries about energy security and climate change; this has promoted hydrogen as a viable option to aid in decarbonizing global energy systems. Hydrogen could substitute for fossil fuels in the future due to the economic, political, and environmental concerns related to energy production using fossil fuels. However, currently, the majority of hydrogen is produced using fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, which is not a renewable source of energy. It is therefore crucial to increase the efforts to produce hydrogen from renewable sources, rather from the existing fossil-based approaches. Thus, this study investigates how renewable energy can accelerate the production of hydrogen fuel in the future under three hydrogen economy-related energy regimes, including nuclear restrictions, hydrogen, and city gas blending, and in the scenarios which consider the geographic distribution of carbon reduction targets. A random effects regression model has been utilized, employing panel data from a global energy system which optimizes for cost and carbon targets. The results of this study demonstrate that an increase in renewable energy sources has the potential to significantly accelerate the growth of future hydrogen production under all the considered policy regimes. The policy implications of this paper suggest that promoting renewable energy investments in line with a fairer allocation of carbon reduction efforts will help to ensure a future hydrogen economy which engenders a sustainable, low carbon society.