Netherlands

Future power systems in which generation will come almost entirely from variable Renewable Energy Sources (vRES) will be characterized by weather-driven supply and flexible demand. In a simulation of the future Dutch power system we analyze whether there are sufficient incentives for market-driven investors to provide a sufficient level of security of supply considering the profit-seeking and myopic behavior of investors. We cosimulate two agent-based models (ABM) one for generation expansion and one for the operational time scale. The results suggest that in a system with a high share of vRES and flexibility prices will be set predominantly by the demand’s willingness to pay particularly by the opportunity cost of flexible hydrogen electrolyzers. The demand for electric heating could double the price of electricity in winter compared to summer and in years with low vRES could cause shortages. Simulations with stochastic weather profiles increase the year-to-year variability of cost recovery by more than threefold and the year-to-year price variability by more than tenfold compared to a scenario with no weather uncertainty. Dispatchable technologies have the most volatile annual returns due to high scarcity rents during years of low vRES production and diminished returns during years with high vRES production. We conclude that in a highly renewable EOM investors would not have sufficient incentives to ensure the reliability of the system. If they invested in such a way to ensure that demand could be met in a year with the lowest vRES yield they would not recover their fixed costs in the majority of years.

Although hydrogen is increasingly seen as a crucial energy carrier in future zero-carbon energy system a profitable exploitation of electrolysers requires still high amounts of subsidies. To analyze the profitability of electrolysers attention has to be paid not only to the costs but also to the interaction between electricity and hydrogen markets. Using a model of internationally integrated electricity and hydrogen markets this paper analyses the profitability of electrolysers plants in various future market circumstances. We find that in particular the future supply of renewable electricity the demand for electricity as well as the prices of natural gas and carbon strongly affect the profitability of electrolysis. In order to make massive investments in electrolysers profitable with significantly lower subsidy requirements the amount of renewable electricity generation needs to grow strongly and the carbon prices should be higher while the demand for electricity should not increase accordingly. This research underscores the critical role of market conditions in shaping the viability of hydrogen electrolysis providing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the transition to a zero-carbon energy system.

The number of species and elementary reactions needed for describing the oxidation of fuels increases with the size of the molecule and in turn the complexity of detailed mechanisms. Although the kinetics for conventional fuels (H2 CH4 C3H8...) are somewhat well-established chemical integration in detonation applications remains a major challenge. Significant efforts have been made to develop reduction techniques that aim to keep the predictive capabilities of detailed mechanisms intact while minimizing the number of species and reactions required. However as their starting point of development is based on homogeneous reactors or ZND profiles reduced mechanisms comprising a few species and reactions are not predictive. The methodology presented here relies on defining virtual chemical species such that the thermodynamic equilibrium of the ZND structure is properly recovered thereby circumventing the need to account for minor intermediate species. A classical asymptotic expression relating the ignition delay time with the reaction rate constant is then used to fit the Arrhenius coefficients targeting computations carried out with detailed kinetics. The methodology was extended to develop a three-step mechanism in which the Arrhenius coefficients were optimized to accurately reproduce the one-dimensional laminar ZND structure and the D−κ curves for slightly-curved quasi-steady detonation waves. Two-dimensional simulations performed with the three-step mechanism successfully reproduce the spectrum of length scales present in soot foils computed with detailed kinetics (i.e. cell regularity and size). Results attest for the robustness of the proposed methodology/approximation and its flexibility to be adapted to different configurations.