Policy & Socio-Economics

The Sixth Carbon Budget report is based on an extensive programme of analysis consultation and consideration by the Committee and its staff building on the evidence published last year for our Net Zero advice. In support of the advice in this report we have also produced:

• A Methodology Report setting out the evidence and methodology behind the scenarios.
• A Policy Report setting out the changes to policy that could drive the changes necessary particularly over the 2020s.
• All the charts and data behind the report as well as a separate dataset for the Sixth Carbon Budget scenarios which sets out more details and data on the pathways than can be included in this report.
• A public Call for Evidence several new research projects three expert advisory groups and deep dives into the roles of local authorities and businesses.

Our recommended pathway requires a 78% reduction in UK territorial emissions between 1990 and 2035. In effect bringing forward the UK’s previous 80% target by nearly 15 years.

As part of reducing carbon emissions governments across the world are working on measures to transition sectors of the economy away from fossil fuels. The socio-technical regimes being constructed around the energy transition can encourage energy centralisation and constrain actor engagement without proper policy and planning. The energy transition is liable to have significant impacts across all of society but less attention has been given to the role of democratic participation and decision-making in the energy system during this time. Using the energy democracy framework developed by Kacper Szulecki we employ content analysis to investigate how Australia’s renewable hydrogen strategies at the Commonwealth and state levels engage with the broader objective of democratising energy systems. Based on our findings we recommend ways to support a renewable hydrogen regime in Australia in line with the principles of energy democracy such as community engagement built-in participation popular sovereignty community-level agency and civic ownership. This study provides a perspective on the energy transition that is often overlooked and a reminder to policymakers that the topology of an energy transition can take many forms.

Hydrogen has been used as an industrial chemical for more than 100 years. Today hydrogen is used to manufacture ammonia and hence fertilizers as well as methanol and hydrogen peroxide both vital feedstocks for a wide variety of different chemical products. Furthermore in oil refineries hydrogen is used for the processing of intermediate products as well as to increase the hydrogen contents of the final products that are used propel the vehicles. However hydrogen has recently achieved new attention for its capabilities in reducing carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Producing hydrogen via low or totally carbon-free ways and using this “good” low-carbon hydrogen to replace hydrogen with a larger carbon footprint we can reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore using renewable electricity and captured carbon we can synthesise many such chemical products that are currently produced from fossil raw materials. This “Power-to-X” (P2X) is often seen as the eventual incarnation of the hydrogen economy. In addition the progress in technology both in hydrogen fuel cells and in polymer electrolyte electrolysers alike has increased their efficiencies.<br/>Furthermore production costs of renewable electricity by wind or solar power have lowered significantly. Thus cost of “good” hydrogen has also decreased markedly and production volumes are expected to increase rapidly. For these reasons many countries have raised interests in “good” hydrogen and have created roadmaps and strategies for their involvement in hydrogen. Hydrogen plays a key role also in combating climate change and reaching Finland's national goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. In recent years many clean hydrogen and P2X production methods have developed significantly and become commercially viable.<br/>This report was produced by a team of VTT experts on hydrogen and hydrogen-related technologies. The focus is in an outlook for low-carbon H2 production H2 utilization for green chemicals and fuels as well as storage transport and end-use especially during the next 10 years in Finland in connection to renewed EU regulations. This roadmap is expected to serve as the knowledge-base for further work such as shaping the hydrogen policy for Finland and determining the role of hydrogen in the national energy and climate policy.

Many countries including China have implemented supporting policies to promote the commercialized application of green hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells. In this study a system dynamics (SD) model is proposed to study the evolution of hydrogen demand in China from the petroleum refining industry the synthetic ammonia industry and the vehicle market. In the model the impact from the macro-environment hydrogen fuel supply and construction of hydrogen facilities is considered to combine in incentives for supporting policies. To further formulate the competitive relationship in the vehicle market the Lotka–Volterra (LV) approach is adopted. The model is verified using published data from 2003 to 2017. The model is also used to forecast China’s hydrogen demand up to the year of 2030 under three different scenarios. Finally some forward-looking guidance is provided to policy makers according to the forecasting results.

This paper provides a critical study of current Australian and leading international policies aimed at supporting electrical energy storage for stationary power applications with a focus on battery and hydrogen storage technologies. It demonstrates that global leaders such as Germany and the U.S. are actively taking steps to support energy storage technologies through policy and regulatory change. This is principally to integrate increasing amounts of intermittent renewable energy (wind and solar) that will be required to meet high renewable energy targets. The relevance of this to the Australian energy market is that whilst it is unique it does have aspects in common with the energy markets of these global leaders. This includes regions of high concentrations of intermittent renewable energy (Texas and California) and high penetration rates of residential solar photovoltaics (PV) (Germany). Therefore Australian policy makers have a good opportunity to observe what is working in an international context to support energy storage. These learnings can then be used to help shape future policy directions and guide Australia along the path to a sustainable energy future.

Global warming and fossil fuel depletion have necessitated alternative sources of energy. Biomass is a promising fuel source because it is renewable and can be carbon negative even without carbon capture and storage. This study considers biomass as a clean renewable source for transportation fuels. An Aspen Plus process simulation model was built of a biomass gasification biorefinery with Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis of liquid fuels. A GaBi life cycle assessment model was also built to determine the environmental impacts using a cradle-to-grave approach. Three different product pathways were considered: Fischer-Tropsch synthetic diesel hydrogen and electricity. An offgas autothermal reformer with a recycle loop was used to increase FT product yield. Different configurations and combinations of biorefinery products are considered. The thermal efficiency and cost of production of the FT liquid fuels are analyzed using the Aspen Plus process model. The greenhouse gas emissions profitability and mileage per kg biomass were compared. The mileage traveled per kilogram biomass was calculated using modern (2019-2021) diesel electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The overall thermal efficiency was found to be between 20-41% for FT fuels production between 58-61% for hydrogen production and around 25-26% for electricity production for this biorefinery. The lowest production costs were found to be $3.171/gal of FT diesel ($24.304/GJ) $1.860/kg of H2 ($15.779/GJ) and 13.332¢/kWh for electricity ($37.034/GJ). All configurations except one had net negative carbon emissions over the life cycle of the biomass. This is because carbon is absorbed in the trees initially and some of the carbon is sequestered in ash and unconverted char from the gasification process furthermore co-producing electricity while making transportation fuel offsets even more carbon emissions. Compared to current market rates for diesel hydrogen and electricity the most profitable biorefinery product is shown to be hydrogen while also having net negative carbon emissions. FT diesel can also be profitable but with a slimmer profit margin (not considering government credits) and still having net negative carbon emissions. However our biorefinery could not compete with current commercial electricity prices in the US. As oil hydrogen and electricity prices continue to change the economics of the biorefinery and the choice product will change as well. For our current biorefinery model hydrogen seems to be the most promising product choice for profit while staying carbon negative while FT diesel is the best choice for sequestering the most carbon and still being profitable. All code and data are given.

The Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program Plan (the Program Plan or Plan) outlines the strategic high-level focus areas of DOE’s Hydrogen Program (the Program). The term Hydrogen Program refers not to any single office within DOE but rather to the cohesive and coordinated effort of multiple offices that conduct research development and demonstration (RD&D) activities on hydrogen technologies. This terminology and the coordinated efforts on hydrogen among relevant DOE offices have been in place since 2004 and provide an inclusive and strategic view of how the Department coordinates activities on hydrogen across applications and sectors. This version of the Plan updates and expands upon previous versions including the Hydrogen Posture Plan and the DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Plan and provides a coordinated high-level summary of hydrogen related activities across DOE.



The 2006 Hydrogen Posture Plan fulfilled the requirement in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) that the Energy Secretary transmit to Congress a coordinated plan for DOE’s hydrogen and fuel cell activities. For historical context the original Posture Plan issued in 2004 outlined a coordinated plan for DOE and the U.S. Department of Transportation to meet the goals of the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative (HFI) and implement the 2002 National Hydrogen Energy Technology Roadmap. The HFI was launched in 2004 to accelerate research development and demonstration (RD&D) of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for use in transportation electricity generation and portable power applications. The Roadmap provided a blueprint for the public and private efforts required to fulfill a long-term national vision for hydrogen energy as outlined in A National Vision of America’s Transition to a Hydrogen Economy—to 2030 and Beyond. Both the Roadmap and the Vision were developed out of meetings involving DOE industry academia non-profit organizations and other stakeholders. The Roadmap the Vision the Posture Plans the 2011 Program Plan and the results of key stakeholder workshops continue to form the underlying basis for this current edition of the Program Plan.



This edition of the Program Plan reflects the Department’s focus on conducting coordinated RD&D activities to enable the adoption of hydrogen technologies across multiple applications and sectors. It includes content from the various plans and documents developed by individual offices within DOE working on hydrogen-related activities including: the Office of Fossil Energy's Hydrogen Strategy: Enabling a Low Carbon Economy the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office Multi-year RD&D Plan the Office of Nuclear Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems 2020 Roadmap and the Office of Science’s Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy. Many of these documents are also in the process of updates and revisions and will be posted online.



Through this overarching document the reader will gain information on the key RD&D needs to enable the largescale use of hydrogen and related technologies—such as fuel cells and turbines—in the economy and how the Department’s various offices are addressing those needs. The Program will continue to periodically revise the Plan along with all program office RD&D plans to reflect technological progress programmatic changes policy decisions and updates based on stakeholder input and reviews.

This document summarizes current hydrogen technologies and communicates the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy's (FE's) strategic plan to accelerate research development and deploymnet of hydrogen technologies in the United States. It also describes ongoing FE hydrogen-related research and development (R&D). Hydrogen from fossil fuels is a versatile energy carrier and can play an important role in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

In an integrated energy system hydrogen can support the decarbonisation of industry transport power generation and buildings across Europe. The EU Hydrogen Strategy addresses how to transform this potential into reality through investments regulation market creation and research and innovation.

Hydrogen can power sectors that are not suitable for electrification and provide storage to balance variable renewable energy flows but this can only be achieved with coordinated action between the public and private sector at EU level. The priority is to develop renewable hydrogen produced using mainly wind and solar energy. However in the short and medium term other forms of low-carbon hydrogen are needed to rapidly reduce emissions and support the development of a viable market.

This gradual transition will require a phased approach:

• From 2020 to 2024 we will support the installation of at least 6 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolysers in the EU and the production of up to one million tonnes of renewable hydrogen.
• From 2025 to 2030 hydrogen needs to become an intrinsic part of our integrated energy system with at least 40 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolysers and the production of up to ten million tonnes of renewable hydrogen in the EU.
• From 2030 to 2050 renewable hydrogen technologies should reach maturity and be deployed at large scale across all hard-to-decarbonise sectors.
• To help deliver on this Strategy the Commission is launched the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance with industry leaders civil society national and regional ministers and the European Investment Bank. The Alliance will build up an investment pipeline for scaled-up production and will support demand for clean hydrogen in the EU.

To target support at the cleanest available technologies the Commission will work to introduce common standards terminology and certification based on life-cycle carbon emissions anchored in existing climate and energy legislation and in line with the EU taxonomy for sustainable investments. The Commission will propose policy and regulatory measures to create investor certainty facilitate the uptake of hydrogen promote the necessary infrastructure and logistical networks adapt infrastructure planning tools and support investments in particular through the Next Generation EU recovery plan.

This technical report accompanies the ‘Net Zero’ advice report which is the Committee’s recommendation to the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on the date for a net-zero emissions target in the UK and revised long-term targets in Scotland and Wales.<br/>The conclusions in our advice report are supported by detailed analysis that has been carried out for each sector of the economy plus consideration of F-gas emissions and greenhouse gas removals. The purpose of this technical report is to lay out that analysis.