Policy & Socio-Economics

Purpose: The standards module of the FCHO presents a large number of standards relevant for the deployment of hydrogen and fuel cells. The standards are categorized per application enhancing ease of access and findability. The development of sector-relevant standards facilitate and enhance economies of scale interoperability comparability safety and many other issues. https://www.fchobservatory.eu/observatory/Policy-and-RCS/Standards Scope: This report presents the developments in European and international standards for the year 2020.Standards from the following standards developing organizations are included: CEN CENELEC ISO IEC OIML. Key Findings: The development of sector relevant standards on an international level continued to grow in 2020; on a European level many standards are still in the process of being drafted. In 2020 12 new standards have been published mainly on the subject of fuel cell technologies. The recently established committee CEN-CLC JTC 6 (Hydrogen in energy systems) has not published standards yet but is working on drafting standards on for example Guarantees of Origin. Previous Reports The first report was published in September 2020. This report is the 2nd Annual report.

This contribution delves into the transformative effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the discourse surrounding German hydrogen. Employing structural topical modeling (STM) on a vast dataset of 2192 newspaper articles spanning from 2019 to 2022 it aims to uncover thematic shifts attributed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The onset of the war in February 2022 triggered a significant pivot in the discourse shifting it from sustainability and climate-change mitigation to the securing of energy supplies through new partnerships particularly in response to Russia’s unreliability. Germany started exploring alternative energy trading partners like Canada and Australia emphasizing green hydrogen development. The study illustrates how external shocks can expedite the uptake of new technologies. The adoption of the “H2 readiness” concept for LNG terminals contributes to the successful implementation of green hydrogen. In summary the Russian–Ukrainian war profoundly impacted the German hydrogen discourse shifting the focus from sustainability to energy supply security underscoring the interconnectedness of energy security and sustainability in Germany’s hydrogen policy.

Purpose: The purpose of the hydrogen supply and demand data stream is to track changes in the structure of hydrogen supply capacity and demand in Europe. This report is mainly focused on presenting the current landscape that will allow for future year-on-year comparisons to assess the progress Europe is making with regards to deployment of clean hydrogen production capacity as well as development of demand for clean hydrogen from emerging new hydrogen applications in industry or mobility sectors. Scope: The following report contains data about hydrogen production capacity and consumption in EU countries together with Switzerland Norway Iceland and the United Kingdom. Hydrogen production capacity is presented by country and by production technology whereas the hydrogen consumption data is presented by country and by end-use sector. The analysis undertaken for this report was completed using data reflecting end of 2019. Key Findings: The current hydrogen market (on both the demand and supply side) is dominated by ammonia and refining industries with three countries (DE NL PL) responsible for almost half of hydrogen consumption. Hydrogen is overwhelmingly produced by reforming of fossil fuels (mostly natural gas). Clean hydrogen production capacities are currently insignificant with hydrogen produced from natural gas coupled with carbon capture at 0.5% and hydrogen produced from water electrolysis at 0.14% of total production capacity.

The hydrogen energy industry as one of the most important directions for future energy transformation can promote the sustainable development of the global economy and of society. China has raised the development of hydrogen energy to a strategic position. Based on the patent data in the past two decades this study investigates the collaborative innovation relationships in China’s hydrogen energy field using complex network theory. Firstly patent data filed between 2003 and 2023 are analyzed and compared in terms of time geography and institutional and technological dimensions. Subsequently a patent collaborative innovation network is constructed to explore the fundamental characteristics and evolutionary patterns over five stages. Furthermore centrality measures and community detection algorithms are utilized to identify core entities and innovation alliances within the network which reveal that China’s hydrogen energy industry is drifting toward alliance innovation. The study results show the following: (1) the network has grown rapidly in size and scope over the last two decades and evolved from the initial stage to the multi-center stage before forming innovation alliances; (2) core innovative entities are important supports and bridges for China’s hydrogen energy industry and control most resources and maintain the robustness of the whole network; (3) innovation alliances reveal the closeness of the collaborative relationships between innovative entities and the potential landscape of China’s hydrogen energy industry; and (4) most of the innovation alliances cooperate only on a narrow range of technologies which may hinder the overall sustainable growth of the hydrogen energy industry. Thereafter some suggestions are put forward from the perspective of an industrial chain and innovation chain which may provide a theoretical reference for collaborative innovation and the future development and planning in the field of hydrogen energy in China.

With the question of ‘can short messages be effective in increasing public support for a complex new technology (hydrogen)?‘ this study uses a representative national survey in Australia to analyze the differences and variations in subjective support for hydrogen in response to four differently framed short messages. The findings of this study show that short messages can increase social acceptance but the effects depend on how strongly the message is framed in terms of its alignment with either an economic or environmental values framework. Furthermore the effects depend on the social and cultural context of the receiver of the message.

Transforming Europe into a climate neutral economy and society by 2050 requires extraordinary efforts and the mobilisation of all sectors and economic actors coupled with all the creative and brain power one can imagine. Each sector has to fundamentally rethink the way it operates to ensure it can be transformed towards this new net-zero paradigm without jeopardising other environmental and societal objectives both within the EU and globally. Given the scale of the transformation ahead our ability to meet climate neutrality targets directly depends on our ability to innovate. In this context Research & Innovation programmes have a key role to play and it is crucial to ensure they are fit for purpose and well equipped to support the next wave of breakthrough innovations that will be required to achieve climate neutrality in the EU and globally by 2050. The objective of this study is to contribute to these strategic planning discussions by not only identifying high-risk and high-impact climate mitigation solutions but most importantly look beyond individual solutions and consider how systemic interactions of climate change mitigation approaches can be integrated in the development of R&I agendas.

The role of negative emissions technologies (NETs) in climate change mitigation remains contentious. Although numerous studies indicate significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requirements for Paris Agreement mitigation goals to be achieved others point out challenges and risks associated with high CDR strategies. Using a multiscale modeling approach we explore NETs’ potential for a single country the United Kingdom (UK). Here we report that the UK has cost-effective potential to remove 79 MtCO2 per year by 2050 rising to 126–134 MtCO2 per year with well-integrated NETs in industrial clusters. Results highlight that biomass gasification for hydrogen generation with CCS is emerging as a key NET despite biomass availability being a limiting factor. Moreover solid DACCS systems utilizing industrial waste heat integration offer a solution to offsetting increases in demand from transportation and industrial sectors. These results emphasize the importance of a multiscale whole-systems assessment for integrating NETs into industrial strategies.

Hydrogen and its derivatives are important components to achieve climate policy goals especially in terms of greenhouse gas neutrality. There is an ongoing controversial debate about the applications in which hydrogen and its derivatives should be used and to what extent. Typically the estimation of hydrogen demand relies on scenario-based analyses with varying underlying assumptions and targets. This study establishes a new framework consisting of existing energy system simulation and optimisation models in order to assess the long-term price-elastic demand of hydrogen. The aim of this work is to shift towards an analysis of the hydrogen demand that is primarily driven by its price. This is done for the case of Germany because of the expected high hydrogen demand for the years 2025–2045. 15 wholesale price pathways were established with final prices in 2045 between 56 €/MWh and 182 €/MWh. The results suggest that – if climate targets are to be achieved - even with high hydrogen prices (252 €/MWh in 2030 and 182 €/MWh in 2045) a significant hydrogen demand in the industry sector and the energy conversion sector is expected to emerge (318 TWh). Furthermore the energy conversion sector has a large share of price sensitive hydrogen demand and therefore its demand strongly increases with lower prices. The road transportation sector will only play a small role in terms of hydrogen demand if prices are low. In the decentralised heating for buildings no relevant demand will be seen over the considered price ranges whereas the centralised supply of heat via heat grids increases as prices fall.

In the context of the German Energiewende the current government intends to install six million heat pumps by 2030. Replacing gas heating by power has significant implications on the infrastructure. One of the biggest advantages of using gas is the existing storage portfolio. It has not been clarified yet how power demand should be structured on an annual level—especially since power storage is already a problem and solar power is widely promoted to fuel heat pumps despite having an inverse profile. In this article three different solutions namely hydrogen batteries and carbon capture and storage are discussed with respect to resources energy and financial demand. It shows that relying solely on batteries or hydrogen is not solving the structuring problem. A combination of all existing technologies (including fossil fuels) is required to structure the newly generated electricity demand

This report aims to summarise the status of the European hydrogen market landscape. It is based on the information available at the European Hydrogen Observatory (EHO) platform the leading source of data and information on hydrogen in Europe (EU27 EFTA and the UK) providing a full overview of the hydrogen market and the deployment of clean hydrogen technologies. As of the end of 2022 a total of 476 operational hydrogen production facilities across Europe boasting a cumulative hydrogen production capacity of approximately 11.30 Mt were identified. Notably the largest share of this capacity is contributed by key European countries including Germany the Netherlands Poland Italy and France which collectively account for 56% of the total hydrogen capacity. The hydrogen consumption in Europe has been estimated at approximately 8.23 Mt reflecting an average capacity utilisation rate of 73%. It's worth highlighting that conventional hydrogen production methods encompassing reforming by-product production from ethylene and styrene and by-product electrolysis collectively yield 11.28 Mt of hydrogen capacity. These conventional processes are distributed across 376 production facilities constituting 99.9% of the total production capacity in 2022. Throughout the year 2022 there were no newly commissioned hydrogen production facilities that integrated carbon capture technology into their operations. Additionally a notable presence of water electrolysis-based hydrogen production projects in Europe was identified. There was a total of 97 water electrolysis projects with 67 of them having a minimum capacity of 0.5 MW resulting in a cumulative production capacity of 174.28 MW. Furthermore 46 such projects were found to be under construction and are anticipated to contribute an additional 1199.07 MW of water electrolysis capacity upon becoming operational with the estimated timeframe ranging from January 2023 to 2025. A significant 87% of the total hydrogen production capacity in Europe is dedicated to onsite captive consumption indicating that it is primarily produced and used within the facility. The remaining 13% of capacity is specifically allocated for external distribution and sale characterizing what's known as merchant consumption. Despite the prevailing dominance of captive hydrogen production within Europe it's noteworthy that thousands of metric tonnes of hydrogen are already being traded and distributed across the continent. These transfers often occur through dedicated hydrogen pipelines or transportation via trucks. In 2022 an example of this growing trend was the hydrogen export from Belgium to the Netherlands which emerged as the single most significant hydrogen flow between European countries constituting a substantial 75% of all hydrogen traded in Europe. Belgium earned distinction as Europe's leading hydrogen exporter with 78% of the hydrogen that flowed between European countries originating 6 from its facilities. Conversely the Netherlands played a pivotal role as Europe's primary hydrogen importer accounting for an impressive 76% of the hydrogen imported into the continent. The rise of the clean hydrogen market in Europe coupled with the European Union's ambition to import 10 Mt of renewable hydrogen from non-EU sources by 2030 is expected to drive an increase in hydrogen flows both exports and imports among European countries. In 2022 the total demand for hydrogen in Europe was estimated to be 8.19 Mt. The biggest share of hydrogen demand comes from refineries which were responsible for 57% of total hydrogen use (4.6 Mt) followed by the ammonia industry with 24% (2.0 Mt). Together these two sectors consumed 81% of the total hydrogen consumption in Europe. Clean hydrogen demand while currently making up less than 0.1% of the overall hydrogen demand is notably driven by the mobility sector. Forecasts project an impressive growth trajectory in total hydrogen demand for Europe over the coming decades. Projections show a remarkable 127% surge from 2030 to 2040 followed by a substantial 63% increase from 2040 to 2050. Considering the current hydrogen demand there is a projected 51% increase until 2030. Throughout the three decades under examination the industrial sector is anticipated to maintain its predominant position consistently demonstrating the highest demand for hydrogen. However this conclusion refers to average values and variations that may exist. The total number of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) registrations in Europe in 2022 was estimated at 1537 units. In comparison to the previous year the number of registrations increased by 31%. This surge in registrations has had a pronounced impact on the overall FCEV fleet's evolution in Europe which increased from 4050 units to 5570 (+38%). Notably passenger cars dominated the landscape constituting 86% of the total FCEV fleet. Exploring the latest advancements in hydrogen infrastructure across Europe in 2022 the hydrogen distribution network comprised spanning a total length of 1569 km. Within Europe the largest networks are situated in Belgium and Germany at 600 km and 400 km respectively. Of particular importance is the cross-border network of France Belgium and the Netherlands spanning a total of 964 km. To keep pace with the rising number of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) on European roads and promote their wider integration it is key to ensure sufficient accessibility to refuelling infrastructure. Consequently many countries are endorsing the establishment of hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) so that they are publicly accessible on a nationwide scale. More recharging and refuelling stations for alternative fuels will be deployed in the coming years across Europe enabling the transport sector to significantly reduce its carbon footprint following the adoption of the alternative fuel infrastructure regulation (AFIR). Part of the regulation's main target is that hydrogen refuelling stations serving both cars and lorries must be deployed from 7 2030 onwards in all urban nodes and every 200 km along the TEN-T core network. Since 2015 the total number of operational and publicly accessible HRS in Europe has grown at an accelerated pace from 38 to 178 by the summer of 2023. Germany takes the lead having the largest share at approximately 54% of the total number of HRS with 96 stations currently operational. The majority of the HRS (89%) are equipped with 700 bar car dispensers. In 2022 the levelized production costs of hydrogen generated through Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in Europe averaged approximately 6.23 €/kg H2. When incorporating a carbon capture system the average cost of hydrogen production via SMR in Europe increased to 6.38 €/kg H2. Additionally the production costs of hydrogen in Europe for 2022 utilizing grid electricity averaged 9.85 €/kg H2. Hydrogen production costs through electrolysis with a direct connection to a renewable energy source had an average estimated cost of 6.86 €/kg. As of May 2023 Europe's operational water electrolyser manufacturing capacity stands at 3.11 GW/year with an additional 2.64 GW planned by the end of 2023. Alkaline technologies make up 53% of the total capacity. Looking ahead to 2025 ongoing projects are expected to raise the total capacity to 7.65 GW/year. Fuel cell deployment in Europe has showed an increasing trend over the past decade. The total number of shipped fuel cells were forecasted on around 11200 units in 2021 and a total capacity of 190 MW. The most significant increase in capacity occurred between 2018 and the forecast of 2021 (+148.8 MW).