Energy Transition Outlook 2021: Technology Progress Report

This report is part of DNV’s suite of Energy Transition Outlook publications for 2021. It focuses on how key energy transition technologies will develop, compete, and interact in the coming five years.
Debate and uncertainty about the energy transition tend to focus on what technology can and can’t do. All too often, such discussions involve wishful thinking, advocacy of a favoured technology, or reference to outdated information. Through this report, we bring insights derived from our daily work with the world’s leading energy players, including producers, transporters, and end users. Each of the ten chapters that follow are written by our experts in the field – or, in the case of maritime technologies, on the ocean.
Because the pace of the transition is intensifying, describing any given technology is like painting a fast-moving train. We have attempted to strike a balance between technical details and issues of safety, efficiency, cost, and competitiveness. Transition technologies are deeply interlinked, and in some cases interdependent; any discussion on green hydrogen, for example, must account for developments in renewable electricity, hydrogen storage and transport systems, and end-use technologies such as fuels cells.
Our selection of ten technologies is not exhaustive, but each of these technologies is of particular interest for the pace and direction of the energy transition. They range from relatively mature technologies like solar PV, to technologies like nuclear fusion which are some distance from commercialization but which have current R&D and prototyping worth watching. Together they cover most, but not all, key sectors. We describe expected developments for the coming five years which, to a large extent, will determine how the energy transition unfolds through to mid-century. As such, this Technology Progress report is an essential supplement to our main Energy Transition Outlook forecast.
Our aim is to make an objective and realistic assessment of the status of these technologies and evaluate how they contribute to the energy transition ahead. Attention to progress in these technologies will be critical for anyone concerned with energy.