2050 Energy Scenarios: The UK Gas Networks Role in a 2050 Whole Energy System

Energy used for heat accounts (in terms of final consumption) for approximately 45% of our total energy needs, and is critical for families to heat their homes on winter days. Decarbonising heat while still meeting peak winter heating demands is recognised as a big, perhaps the biggest, challenge for the industry. The way heat has been delivered in the UK has not fundamentally changed for decades and huge investments have been made in gas infrastructure assets ranging from import terminals to networks through to the appliances in our homes. Changing how heat is delivered, whichever way is chosen, will be a major economic and practical challenge affecting families and businesses everywhere. Any plan to decarbonise will need to address power and transport, alongside heat. Our report has also looked at potential decarbonisation of power and transport, as part of a whole energy system approach.
In this report we explore ways that the heat sector can be decarbonised, by looking at four possible future scenarios set in 2050. These stylised scenarios present illustrative snapshots of alternative energy solutions. The scenarios do not present a detailed roadmap – indeed the future may include some elements from each. We have analysed the advantages, disadvantages, and costs of each scenario. All our scenarios meet the 2050 Carbon emissions targets. In this report we have concentrated on reductions to CO₂ emissions and we have not considered other greenhouse gases.