Quantifying Key Economic Uncertainties in the Cost of Trading Green Hydrogen

In a fully decarbonized global energy system, hydrogen is likely to be one of few energy vectors that can facilitate long-distance export of renewable energy. However, because of divergent literature findings, consensus is yet to be reached on the total supply chain costs of shipping hydrogen either as a cryogenic liquid or ammonia. To this end, this article presents a detailed process systems-based economic analysis of a typical hydrogen value chain in 2050, employing the method of elementary effects to quantify the effect of uncertainties. With expected landed costs for liquid hydrogen of $4.60 kg1 (H2) and ammonia of $3.30 kg1 (H2), the importance of uncertainty quantification is demonstrated, given that specific parametric combinations can yield landed costs below $2.50 kg1 (H2). Given our delivered hydrogen cost of $4.70 kg1 (H2), these results demonstrate the stark difference between the aspirations of decarbonization policy (with some countries aiming for prices below $1 kg1 by 2050) and the present techno-economic reality.