The Role of Power-to-X and Domestic eFuel Production for Energy Transition and Energy Independence in Europe

The ongoing global energy transition, spurred by ecological concerns and by evolving political dynamics, is necessitating a significant expansion of renewable energy sources. This shift towards renewables is introducing the challenge of heightened energy supply volatility, and it underscores the imperative for large-scale storage solutions in order to mitigate fluctuations in demand and supply. This study investigates the potential of Power-to-X (P2X) technologies to address this challenge, and it evaluates their technical and socioeconomic implications. Using scenario simulations that leverage the maximum estimated potentials of renewable energy sources relative to demand profiles across different countries, we explore the role of P2X integration in the enhancement of energy production. Our analysis highlights the pivotal role of hydrogen in the decarbonization of key industrial sectors such as steel production and heavyduty transportation, in the near term. For Germany, we observe a reduction in CO2 emissions from 306.26 Mt to 232.28 Mt (-24.15%) and an increase in energy independence, as measured by the reduction in primary energy imports, from 1150.37 TWh to 887.86 TWh (-22.82%) when comparing the baseline scenario to the most socio-economically favorable scenario. France demonstrates even greater reductions, with CO2 emissions decreasing by 37.69% and primary energy imports by 40.46%. Portugal achieves similar reductions, with CO2 emissions falling by 38.71% and primary energy imports by 41.81%. However, none of the three countries investigated in this study (Germany, France, and Portugal) achieve full decarbonization and energy independence simultaneously, since their respective potential for renewable energy is not sufficiently large. Drawing from these insights and accounting for the unique contexts of each of the three countries, we offer tailored policy recommendations for optimizing P2X utilization and enhancing energy production efficiency.