Power and Green Hydrogen Trade Potential between North African and European Countries: Conditions, Challenges, and Sustainability Prospects

This study investigates the implications of hydrogen demand and trade between Europe and North Africa, emphasizing how renewable energy system (RES) capacity limitations impact both regions. Growing hydrogen demand for decarbonization has fueled interest in North Africa’s potential to export green hydrogen to Europe. Using the eTIMES-EUNA model, this study examines how demand, trade, and RES development challenges shape the energy landscapes of both regions. The findings indicate that hydrogen demand amplifies renewable electricity requirements in both regions, with Europe particularly benefiting from importing hydrogen to alleviate additional RES capacity installation. Hydrogen trade reduces overall costs by 1 %, yet it shifts a considerable financial burden onto North Africa, demanding a rapid RES capacity expansion at a rate significantly higher than the current pace. Slower RES development in North Africa could hinder the region’s ability to meet both domestic and export targets, thereby complicating Europe’s hydrogen sourcing strategies, which are also challenged by social acceptance issues that limit RES deployment. These constraints in Europe necessitate adjustments to the technological mix and place additional pressure on North Africa to increase production. Furthermore, the varying implications and stakes at the national level highlight the need for further analysis, as individual countries may prioritize their own interests, potentially leading to conflicts with neighboring nations under different development schemes. Consequently, the results underscore the importance of coordinated financial and policy support to ensure equitable trade that aligns with both regions’ sustainability goals.