What will be the Hydrogen and Power Demands of the Process Industry in a Climate-neutral Germany?

The defossilization of industry has far-reaching implications regarding the future demand for hydrogen and other forms of energy. This paper presents and applies a fundamental bottom-up model that relies on techno-economic data of industrial production processes. Its aim is to identify, across a range of scenarios, the most cost-effective low-carbon options considering a variety of production systems. Subsequently, it derives the hydrogen and electricity demand that would result from the implementation of these least-cost low-carbon options in process industries in Germany. Aligning with the German government's target year for achieving climate neutrality, this study’s reference year is 2045. The primary contribution lies in analyzing which hydrogen-based and direct electrification solutions would be cost-effective for a range of energy price levels under climate-neutral industrial production and what the resulting hydrogen and electricity demand would be. To this end, the methodology of this paper comprises the following steps: selection of the relevant industries (I), definition of conventional reference production systems and their low-carbon options (II), investigation and processing of the techno-economic data of the standardized production systems (III), establishment of a scenario framework (IV), determination of the least-cost low-carbon solution of a conventional reference production system under the scenario assumptions made (V), and estimation of the resulting hydrogen and electricity demand (VI). According to the results, the expected industrial hydrogen consumption in 2045 ranges from 255 TWh for higher hydrogen prices in or above the range of onshore wind-based green hydrogen supply costs, to up to 542 TWh for very low hydrogen prices corresponding to typical blue hydrogen production costs. Meanwhile, the direct electricity consumption of the process industries in the results ranges from 122 TWh for these rather low hydrogen prices to 368 TWh for the higher hydrogen prices in the region of or above the hydrogen supply costs from the electrolysis of energy from an onshore wind farm. Most of the break-even hydrogen prices that are relevant to the choice of low-carbon options are in the range of the benchmark purchase costs for blue hydrogen and green hydrogen produced from offshore wind power, which span between €40 per MWh and €97 per MWh.