The Role of Hydrogen in a Decarbonised Future Transport Sector: A Case Study of Mexico

In recent years, several approaches and pathways have been discussed to decarbonise the transport sector; however, any effort to reduce emissions might be complex due to specific socio-economic and technical characteristics of different regions. In Mexico, the transport sector is the highest energy consumer, representing 38.9% of the national final energy demand, with gasoline and diesel representing 90% of the sector´s total fuel consumption. Energy systems models are powerful tools to obtain insights into decarbonisation pathways to understand costs, emissions and rate of deployment that could serve for energy policy development. This paper focuses on the modelling of the current Mexican transport system using the MUSE-MX multi-regional model with the aim to project a decarbonisation pathway through two different scenarios. The first approach being business as usual (BAU) which aims to analyse current policies implementation and the second being a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Under the considered net zero scenario, results show potential deployment of hydrogen-based transport technologies, especially for subsectors such as lorries (100% H2 by 2050) and freight train (25% H2 by 2050), while cars and buses tend to full electrification by 2050.