Ammonia Production from Clean Hydrogen and the Implications for Global Natural Gas Demand

Non-energy use of natural gas is gaining importance. Gas used for 183 million tons annual ammonia production represents 4% of total global gas supply. 1.5-degree pathways estimate an ammonia demand growth of 3–4-fold until 2050 as new markets in hydrogen transport, shipping and power generation emerge. Ammonia production from hydrogen produced via water electrolysis with renewable power (green ammonia) and from natural gas with CO2 storage (blue ammonia) is gaining attention due to the potential role of ammonia in decarbonizing energy value chains and aiding nations in achieving their net-zero targets. This study assesses the technical and economic viability of different routes of ammonia production with an emphasis on a systems level perspective and related process integration. Additional cost reductions may be driven by optimum sizing of renewable power capacity, reducing losses in the value chain, technology learning and scale-up, reducing risk and a lower cost of capital. Developing certification and standards will be necessary to ascertain the extent of greenhouse gas emissions throughout the supply chain as well as improving the enabling conditions, including innovative finance and de-risking for facilitating international trade, market creation and large-scale project development.