Modeling the Effects of Implementation of Alternative Ways of Vehicle Powering

The trend to replace traditional fossil fuel vehicles is becoming increasingly apparent. The replacement concerns the use of pure biofuels or in blends with traditional fuels, the use of hydrogen as an alternative fuel and, above all, the introduction of electric propulsion. The introduction of new types of vehicle propulsion affects the demand for specific fuels, the needs for new infrastructure, or the nature of the emissions to the environment generated by fuel production and vehicle operation. The article presents a mathematical model using the difference of two logistic functions, the first of which describes the development of the production of a specific type of vehicle, and the second, the withdrawal of this type of vehicle from traffic after its use. The model makes it possible to forecast both the number of vehicles of each generation as a function of time, as well as changes in energy demand from various sources and changes in exhaust emissions. The results of the numerical simulation show replacing classic vehicles with alternative vehicles increases the total energy demand if the generation of the next generation occurs earlier than the decay of the previous generation of vehicles and may decrease in the case of overlapping or delays in the creation of new vehicles compared to the course of the decay function of the previous generation. For electric vehicles, carbon dioxide emissions are largely dependent on the emissions from electricity generation. The proposed model can be used to forecast technology development variants, as well as analyze the current situation based on the approximation of real data from Vehicle Registration Offices.