Analyzing the Necessity of Hydrogen Imports for Net-zero Emission Scenarios in Japan

With Japan’s current plans to reach a fully decarbonized society by 2050 and establish a hydrogen society, substantial changes to its energy system need to be made. Due to the limited land availability in Japan, significant amounts of hydrogen are planned to be imported to reach both targets. In this paper, a novel stochastic version of the open-source multi-sectoral Global Energy System Model in conjunction with a power system dispatch model is used to analyze the impacts of both availability and price of hydrogen imports on the transformation of the Japanese energy system considering a net-zero emission target. This analysis highlights that hydrogen poses a valuable resource in specific sectors of the energy system. Therefore, importing hydrogen can indeed positively impact energy system developments, although up to 19mt of hydrogen will be imported in the case with the cheapest available hydrogen. In contrast, without any hydrogen imports, power demand nearly doubles in 2050 compared to 2019 due to extensive electrification in non-electricity sectors. However, hydrogen imports are not necessarily required to reach net-zero emissions. In all cases, however, large-scale investments into renewable energy sources need to be made.