The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – Part 1 Assessment of Climate Risk and the International Response

This is the first document of a two-part review of the Fourth Carbon Budget, which covers 2023 to 2027. The Fourth Carbon Budget, agreed by the Government in June 2011, was scheduled to be reviewed in 2014. The second part of the review is available here: The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 2: the cost effective path to the 2050 target (December 2013).
According to the Climate Change Act 2008, carbon budgets can only be altered if there is a significant change in circumstances upon which the budget was set. Any such change in circumstances must be demonstrated through evidence and analysis.
The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 1 focuses on developments in three categories of circumstance on which the budget was set: climate science, international circumstances, and European Union pathways. The report also looks at findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and assesses the implications for carbon budgets.