Australia

Political decarbonisation commitments and outcompeting renewable electricity costs are disrupting energy systems. This foresight study prepares stakeholders for this dynamic reactive change by examining visions that constitute a probable plausible and possible component of future energy systems. Visions were extrapolated through an expert review of energy technologies and Australian case studies. ‘Probable–Abundant’ envisages a high penetration of solar and wind with increased value of balancing services: batteries pumped hydro and transmission. This vision is exemplified by the South Australian grid where variable and distributed sources lead generation. ‘Plausible–Traded’ envisages power and power fuel exports given hydrogen and high-voltage direct-current transmission advances reflected by public and private sector plans to leverage rich natural resources for national and intercontinental exchanges. ‘Possible–Zero’ envisages the application of carbon removal and nuclear technologies in response to the escalating challenge of deep decarbonisation. The Australian critical minerals strategy signals adaptations of high-emission industries to shifting energy resource values. These visions contribute a flexible accessible framework for diverse stakeholders to discuss uncertain energy systems changes and consider issues from new perspectives. Appraisal of preferred futures allows stakeholders to recognise observed changes as positive or negative and may lead to new planning aspirations.

This study investigates the impact of including (or neglecting) the variable efficiency of hydrogen electrolyzers as a function of operating power in the modelling of green hydrogen produced from variable renewable energy sources. Results show that neglecting the variable electrolyzer efficiency as is commonly done in studies of green hydrogen leads to significant overestimation of hydrogen production in the range of 5–24%. The effects of the time resolution used in models are also investigated as well as the impact of including the option for the electrolyzer to switch to stand-by mode instead of powering down and electrolyzer ramp rate constraints. Results indicate that these have a minor effect on overall hydrogen production with the use of hour resolution data leading to overestimation in the range of 0.2–2% relative to using 5-min data. This study used data from three solar farms and three wind in Australia from which it is observed that wind farms produced 55% more hydrogen than the solar farms. The results in this study highlight the critical importance of including the variable efficiency of electrolyzers in the modelling of green hydrogen production. As this industry scales continuing to neglect this effect would lead to the overestimation of hydrogen production by tens of megatonnes.

This study evaluates the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) dynamically produced using the two dominant electrolysis technologies directly connected to wind turbines or photovoltaic (PV) panels in regions of Australia designated as hydrogen hubs. Hourly data are utilised to size the components required to meet the hydrogen demand. The dynamic efficiency of each electrolysis technology as a function of input power along with its operating characteristics and overload capacity are employed to estimate flexible hydrogen production. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to capture the behaviour of the LCOH in response to inherent uncertainty in critical financial and technical factors. Additionally the study investigates the trade-offs between carbon cost and lifecycle emissions of green hydrogen. This approach is applied to ascertain the impact of internalising environmental costs on the cost-competitiveness of green hydrogen compared to grey hydrogen. The economic modelling is developed based on the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) guidelines. The findings indicate that scale-up is key to reducing the LCOH by a meaningful amount. However scale-up alone is insufficient to reach the target value of AUD 3 (USD 2) except for PV-based plant in the Pilbara region. Lowered financial costs from scale-up can make the target value achievable for PV-based plants in Gladstone and Townsville and for wind-based plants in the Eyre Peninsula and Pilbara regions. For other hubs a lower electricity cost is required as it accounts for the largest portion of the LCOH.

Industry is the biggest sector of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions whose decarbonisation is essential to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Carbon capture energy efficiency improvement and hydrogen are among the main strategies for industrial decarbonization. However novel approaches are needed to address the key requirements and differences between sectors to ensure they can work together to well integrate industrial decarbonisation with heat CO2 and hydrogen. The emerging Calcium Looping (CaL) is attracting interest in designing CO2-involved chemical processes for heat capture and storage. The reversibility relatively high-temperature (600 to 900 ◦C) and high energy capacity output as well as carbon capture function make CaL well-fit for CO2 capture and utilisation and waste heat recovery from industrial flue gases. Meanwhile methane dry reforming (MDR) is a promising technology to produce blue hydrogen via the consumption of two major greenhouse gases i.e. CO2 and CH4. It has great potential to combine the two technologies to achieve insitu CO2 utilization with multiple benefits. In this paper progresses on the reaction conditions and performance of CaL for CO2 capture and industrial waste heat recovery as well as MDR were screened. Secondly recent approaches to CaL-MDR synergy have been reviewed to identify the advantages. The major challenges in such a synergistic process include MDR catalyst deactivation CaL sorbents sintering and system integration. Thirdly the paper outlooks future work to explore a rational design of a multi-function system for the proposed synergistic process.

The reliability of renewable hydrogen supply for off-take applications is critical to the future sustainable energy economy. Integrated water electrolysis can be deployed at distributed municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) creating opportunity for reduction in carbon emissions through direct and indirect use of the electrolysis output. A novel energy shifting process where the co-produced oxygen is compressed and stored to enhance the utilisation of intermittent renewable electricity is analysed. The hydrogen produced can be used in local fuel cell electric buses to replace incumbent diesel buses for public transport. However quantifying the extent of carbon emission reduction of this conceptual integrated system is key. In this study the integration of hydrogen production at a case study WWTP of 26000 EP capacity and using the hydrogen in buses was compared with two conventional systems: the base case of a WWTP with grid electricity consumption offset by solar PV and the community’s independent use of diesel buses for transport and the non-integrated configuration with hydrogen produced at the bus refuelling location operated independently of the WWTP. The system response was analysed using a Microsoft Excel simulation model with hourly time steps over a 12-month time frame. The model included a control scheme for the reliable supply of hydrogen for public transport and oxygen to the WWTP and considered expected reductions in carbon intensity of the national grid level of solar PV curtailment electrolyser efficiency and size of the solar PV system. Results showed that by 2031 when Australia’s national electricity is forecast to achieve a carbon intensity of less than 0.186 kg CO2-e/kWh integrating water electrolysis at a municipal WWTP for producing hydrogen for use in local hydrogen buses produced less carbon emissions than continuing to use diesel buses and offsetting emissions by exporting renewable electricity to the grid. By 2034 an annual reduction of 390 t–CO2–e is expected after changing to the integrated configuration. Considering electrolyser efficiency improvements and curtailment of renewable electricity the reduction increases to 872.8 t–CO2–e.

Hydrogen-diesel dual direct-injection (H2DDI) engines present a promising pathway towards cleaner and more efficient transportation. In this study hydrogen split injection strategies were explored in an automotive-size single-cylinder compression ignition (CI) engine with a focus on varying the injection timings and energy fractions. The engine was operated at an intermediate load with fixed combustion phasing through adjustments of pilot diesel injection timing. An energy substitution principle guided the variation in energy fraction between the two hydrogen injections and then diesel injection while keeping the total energy input constant. The findings demonstrate that early first hydrogen injection timings lead to characteristics indicative of premixed combustion reflecting a high homogeneity of the hydrogen-air mixture. In contrast hydrogen stratification levels were predominantly influenced by later second injection timings with mixing-controlled combustion behaviour apparent for very late injections near top dead centre or when the second hydrogen injection held high energy fractions which led to decreased nitrogen oxides (NOx: NO and NO2) emissions. The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions did not show high sensitivity to the hydrogen split injection strategies exhibiting about 77 % reduction compared to the diesel baseline due primarily to increased hydrogen energy fraction of up to 90 %

Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) is an emerging large-scale energy storage technology. Researchers are investigating its feasibility and performance including its injectivity productivity and storage capacity through numerical simulations. However several ad-hoc relative permeability and capillary pressure functions have been used in the literature with no direct link to the underlying physics of the hydrogen storage and production process. Recent relative permeability measurements for the hydrogen-brine system show very low hydrogen relative permeability and strong liquid phase hysteresis very different to what has been observed for other fluid systems for the same rock type. This raises the concern as to what extend the existing studies in the literature are able to reliably quantify the feasibility of the potential storage projects. In this study we investigate how experimentally measured hydrogen-brine relative permeability hysteresis affects the performance of UHS projects through numerical reservoir simulations. Relative permeability data measured during a hydrogen-water core-flooding experiment within ADMIRE project is used to design a relative permeability hysteresis model. Next numerical simulation for a UHS project in a generic braided-fluvial water-gas reservoir is performed using this hysteresis model. A performance assessment is carried out for several UHS scenarios with different drainage relative permeability curves hysteresis model coefficients and injection/production rates. Our results show that both gas and liquid relative permeability hysteresis play an important role in UHS irrespective of injection/production rate. Ignoring gas hysteresis may cause up to 338% of uncertainty on cumulative hydrogen production as it has negative effects on injectivity and productivity due to the resulting limited variation range of gas saturation and pressure during cyclic operations. In contrast hysteresis in the liquid phase relative permeability resolves this issue to some extent by improving the displacement of the liquid phase. Finally implementing relative permeability curves from other fluid systems during UHS performance assessment will cause uncertainty in terms of gas saturation and up to 141% underestimation on cumulative hydrogen production. These observations illustrate the importance of using relative permeability curves characteristic of hydrogen-brine system for assessing the UHS performances.

This current article discusses the technoeconomics (TE) of hydrogen generation transportation compression and storage in the Australian context. The TE analysis is important and a prerequisite for investment decisions. This study selected the Australian context due to its huge potential in green hydrogen but the modelling is applicable to other parts of the world adjusting the price of electricity and other utilities. The hydrogen generation using the most mature alkaline electrolysis (AEL) technique was selected in the current study. The results show that increasing temperature from 50 to 90 ◦C and decreasing pressure from 13 to 5 bar help improve electrolyser performance though pressure has a minor effect. The selected range for performance parameters was based on the fundamental behaviour of water electrolysers supported with literature. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCH2 ) was calculated for generation compression transportation and storage. However the majority of the LCH2 was for generation which was calculated based on CAPEX OPEX capital recovery factor hydrogen production rate and capacity factor. The LCH2 in 2023 was calculated to be 9.6 USD/kgH2 using a base-case solar electricity price of 65–38 USD/MWh. This LCH2 is expected to decrease to 6.5 and 3.4 USD/kgH2 by 2030 and 2040 respectively. The current LCH2 using wind energy was calculated to be 1.9 USD/kgH2 lower than that of solar-based electricity. The LCH2 using standalone wind electricity was calculated to be USD 5.3 and USD 2.9 in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The LCH2 predicted using a solar and wind mix (SWM) was estimated to be USD 3.2 compared to USD 9.6 and USD 7.7 using standalone solar and wind. The LCH2 under the best case was predicted to be USD 3.9 and USD 2.1 compared to USD 6.5 and USD 3.4 under base-case solar PV in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The best case SWM offers 33% lower LCH2 in 2023 which leads to 37% 39% and 42% lower LCH2 in 2030 2040 and 2050 respectively. The current results are overpredicted especially compared with CSIRO Australia due to the higher assumption of the renewable electricity price. Currently over two-thirds of the cost for the LCH2 is due to the price of electricity (i.e. wind and solar). Modelling suggests an overall reduction in the capital cost of AEL plants by about 50% in the 2030s. Due to the lower capacity factor (effective energy generation over maximum output) of renewable energy especially for solar plants a combined wind- and solar-based electrolysis plant was recommended which can increase the capacity factor by at least 33%. Results also suggest that besides generation at least an additional 1.5 USD/kgH2 for compression transportation and storage is required.

The necessity of energy solutions that are economically viable ecologically sustainable and environmentally friendly has become fundamental to economic and societal advancement of nations. In this context renewable energy sources emerge as the most vital component. Furthermore hydrogen generation systems based on renewable energies are increasingly recognized as the most crucial strategies to mitigate global warming. In the present study a comparative analysis is conducted from an exergy-economic perspective to find the most efficient configuration among three different systems for renewable-based power to hydrogen production. These renewable sources are wind turbine salinity gradient solar pond (SGSP) and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). SGSP and OTEC are coupled with a hydrogen production unit by a trilateral cycle (TLC) to improve the temperature match of the heating process. The heat waste energy within these systems is recovered by a thermoelectric generator (TEG) and a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEME) is used for hydrogen production. Under base case input conditions the net power input of PEME is estimated to be approximately 327.8 kW across all configurations. Additionally the 3E (energy exergy and exergy-economic) performance of the three systems is evaluated by a parametric study and design optimization. The results of the best performance analysis reveal that the best exergy efficiency is achievable with the wind-based system in the range of 5.8–10.47% and for average wind speed of 8–12 m/s. Correspondingly the most favorable total cost rate is attributed to the wind-based system at a wind speed of 8 m/s equating to 66.08 USD/h. Subsequently the unit cost of hydrogen for the SGSP-based system is estimated to be the most economical ranging from 42.78 to 44.31 USD/GJ.

A range of existing and newly developed hydrogen standards certification and labelling (SCL) schemes aim to promote the role of ‘renewable’ ‘clean’ or ‘green’ hydrogen in decarbonising energy transitions. This paper analyses a sample of these SCLs to assess their role in the scaling up of renewable hydrogen and its derivatives. To analyse these hydrogen SCLs we embellish a novel conceptual framework that brings together Sustainability Systems Thinking and Governance (SSG) literatures. The results reveal noteworthy scheme differences in motivation approach criteria and governance; highlighting the complex interconnected and dynamic reality within which energy systems are embedded. We consider whether the sustainable utilisation of renewable hydrogen is well-served by the proliferation of SCLs and recommend an SSG-informed approach. An SSG approach will better promote collaboration towards an authoritative global multistakeholder compromise on hydrogen certification that balances economic considerations with social and environmental dimensions.