Policy & Socio-Economics

On today’s episode of Everything About Hydrogen we are speaking with Paul Bogers Vice President for Hydrogen at Shell. As a company Shell needs no introduction but the company’s work and investments in the hydrogen space make it a global leader in the energy transition especially when it comes to the hydrogen component. Paul is amongst the executives at Shell that are working to bring their hydrogen vision to fruition and it is great to have him with us on the show today.

The podcast can be found on their website

The decarbonisation of heat supply will play a critical role in meeting the emissions reduction target. There is however great uncertainty associated with the achievable levels of heat decarbonisation and the optimal heat technology mix which can have serious implications for the future electricity and gas demand. This work employs an integrated gas electricity and heat supply model to quantify the impacts of heat decarbonisation pathways on the future electricity and gas demand. A case study in the Great Britain is performed considering two heat decarbonisation scenarios in 2050: one is the predominantly electrified heat supply and the other is the predominantly hydrogen-based heat supply. The electricity demand becomes more volatile in the electrified heat scenario as the peak surges to 107.3 GW compared to 51.1 GW in the 2018 reference scenario while the peak in hydrogen-based heat scenario is 78.4 GW. The peak gas demand declines from 247.6 GW for 2018 to 81.7 GW for electrified heat scenario and to 85.1 GW for hydrogen-based heat scenario confirming that the seasonality associated with heat demand is shifting away from the gas network and towards electricity network. Moreover a sensitivity analysis shows that the future electricity demand is highly sensitive to parameters such as relative heat demand coefficient of performance of air source heat pumps and share of electricity in hydrogen production. Finally the application of a load shifting strategy demonstrates that demand-side flexibility has the potential to maintain the electricity system balance and minimise the generation and network infrastructure requirements arising from heat electrification. While the case study presented in this paper is based on the Great Britain the findings regarding the future electricity and gas demand are relevant for the global energy transition.

Following up on our report Uncomfortable Home Truths: why Britain urgently needs a low carbon heat strategy Pipeline to 2050 sets out recommendations for BEIS’ forthcoming Heat and Buildings Strategy. Based on the findings of five roundtables held between January and July 2020 with cross-party parliamentarians policy-makers and experts from industry academia and non-governmental organisations the publication calls for a joined-up approach that simultaneously addresses all aspects of heat decarbonisation.<br/>The report highlights that today there is a patchwork of heat policy initiatives. Although they might incentivise positive development in themselves are nevertheless too dispersed and not enough to drive the level of coordinated action that is needed given the complexity of heat decarbonisation. Setting out propositions to tackle challenges associated with the transition to low carbon heat in the areas of governance funding innovation and public engagement; the publication calls for a Heat and Buildings Strategy that shows a step change in terms of ambition for heat decarbonisation.<br/>The report recommends that the Heat and Buildings Strategy needs to put forward a systematic approach that joins up all policy aspects and principles needed for the transition to low carbon heat. Moreover given the cross-sectoral engagement needed between consumers industry research and various levels of the government it argues that the Strategy has to be constructed in a way that simultaneously catalyses action from all stakeholders that are needed to take part in the process for effective heat decarbonisation.

This brief explores recent momentum on hydrogen and evaluates potential implications for subsidies for fossil fuel-based hydrogen given the government's commitments on fossil fuel subsidies.

Spending on hydrogen has the potential to significantly influence the direction taken by the world’s energy systems. In December 2020 Canada unveiled a national hydrogen strategy following the announcement of a strengthened climate plan. The strategy emphasized both blue and green hydrogen. As the government considers whether to provide subsidies for hydrogen we recommend government:

• Ensure that any subsidies for hydrogen are in line with the government’s commitments to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 and meet net-zero by 2050.
• Thoroughly evaluate the potential efficiency of subsidies for hydrogen against robust social environmental and economic criteria. • Improve transparency by publicly reporting on direct spending and tax expenditures for hydrogen production.
• Follow international best practices being set by Canada’s peers. For example Germany and Spain have laid out hydrogen strategies prioritizing green hydrogen.

Based on IISD's analysis subsidies for hydrogen based on natural gas without significant levels of carbon capture and storage (CCS) should not be eligible for government assistance. Subsidies for blue hydrogen should only occur if blue hydrogen can meet the same level of environmental performance (including emission intensity) and is at or below the cost of green hydrogen.

This brief is one of three International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) policy briefs in its Recovery Through Reform series which assesses how efforts to achieve a green recovery from COVID-19 in Canada rely on—and can contribute to—fossil fuel subsidy reform.

The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious decarbonization targets for 2050.

Renewable electricity and electrification are the key drivers but are not sufficient on their own to meet the targets. A number of countries expect decarbonized gas (e.g. renewable hydrogen and biomethane) to be part of a future decarbonized energy system.

Within that context this paper examines proposals recently issued by Spain’s energy regulator (CNMC) to define the methodology for remunerating gas distribution and transmission networks and LNG regasification terminals. Their proposals would reduce significantly the remuneration of these activities. Bearing in mind the objective of decarbonization this paper analyzes key features of the proposals and concludes with recommendations. We suggest:

• Adoption of a common methodology for remunerating new investment in gas and electricity infrastructure assets. The Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) approach is a suitable methodology especially for high-risk investment to integrate hydrogen.
• CNMC reconsideration of its proposals for existing assets. The aim should be to ensure that even if remuneration is reduced to some extent investors will still be compensated adequately and that the companies will continue to support the investments needed to digitalize processes deliver natural gas and eventually deliver renewable gas where it is economic to do so. This is an important signal for current and future investors whose investments will be regulated by the CNMC.
• Clarification of the methodology for remunerating renewable gas facilities. If renewable gas (especially hydrogen) requires access to regulated gas networks the CNMC methodology must provide suitable incentives to invest in network expansion and upgrading as required as well as to maintain natural gas operations. Even if no decision is made in the short-term regarding hydrogen it would be prudent to leave the door open by making the regulation compatible with future decisions involving hydrogen development.
• Consideration of potentially stranded assets. The CNMC and the Government should coordinate over the remuneration of infrastructure assets when national policy decisions may lead to the stranding of these assets.
• Decarbonization of the energy system as a whole. The CNMC and the Government should consider how best to promote the decarbonization of the energy system as a whole rather than its individual parts and what role is to be played by regulated networks and by unregulated initiatives in competitive markets especially for the development of hydrogen systems.

​Link to document on OIES website​​​

This paper looked at 39 hydrogen associations across Europe to understand which economic sectors support the hydrogen transition in Europe and why they do so. Several broad conclusions can be drawn from this paper. It is clear that the support for hydrogen is broad and from a very wide spectrum of economic actors that have clear interests in the success of the hydrogen transition. Motivations for support differ. Sales and market growth are important for companies pursuing professional scientific and technical activities as well as manufacturers of chemicals machinery electronic or electrical equipment and fabricated metals. The increasing cost of CO2 combines with regulatory and societal pressure to decarbonize and concerns from investors about the long-term profitability of sectors with high emissions. This makes hydrogen especially interesting for companies working in the energy transport steel and chemical industries. Another motivation is the ability to keep using existing fixed assets relevant for ports oil and gas companies and natural gas companies. More sector-specific concerns are a technological belief held by some motor vehicle manufacturers in the advantages of FCVs over BEVs for private mobility which is held more widely regarding heavy road transport. Security of supply and diversifying the current business portfolio come up specifically for natural gas companies. Broader concerns about having to shift into other energy technologies as a core business are reasons for interest from the oil and gas sector and ports.

Perhaps the most important lesson is that the hydrogen transition has already begun – but it needs continued policy support and political commitment. Carbon-intensive industries such as steel and chemicals are clearly interested and willing to invest billions but need policy support to avoid carbon leakage to high-carbon competitors before they commit. The gas grid is ready and many operators and utility companies are eager but they need clearance to experiment with blending in hydrogen. Hydrogen road vehicles still face many regulatory hurdles. There are several clusters that can serve as models and nuclei for the future European hydrogen economy in different parts of Europe. However these nuclei will need more public funding and regulatory support for them to grow.

Link to document on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies website 

The Energy Research Accelerator (ERA) and the Birmingham Energy Institute have launched a policy commission to examine the state of play barriers challenges and opportunities for Energy from Waste (EfW) to form part of the regional energy circular economy in the Midlands. This policy commission explores the case for regional investment whilst helping shape the regional local government and industry thinking surrounding critical issues such as fuel poverty and poor air quality.

The Challenge

Tackling climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. To follow the path for limiting global warming below 2^ᵒC set out in the 2015 Paris agreement requires significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The UK has committed to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 requiring action at a local regional and national level to transition to a zero carbon economy.

To decarbonise and decentralise the UK’s energy system we must implement technologies that provide energy supply solutions across the UK.

In the Midlands many industrial sites are unable to access supply of affordable clean and reliable energy to meet their demands.

Energy from Waste (EfW) could offer a solution to the Midlands based industrial sites. EfW sites provide affordable secure energy supply solutions that form part of a developing circular economy. EfW reduces our reliance on landfills and obtains the maximum value from our waste streams. There are a number of merging technologies that could potentially play an important role which treats waste as a resource properly integrated into an energy and transport system and fully respects the potential of linking in the circular economy.

Investment into EfW infrastructure in the region could lead to job creation and economic growth and could help provide inward investment needed to redevelop old industrial sites and retiring power stations. However for EfW to be part of a net-zero energy system (either in transition or long-term) technologies and processes are needed that reduce the current carbon emissions burden.

EfW could play a significant role in the net zero carbon transition in the Midlands supplying heat power and green fuels and solve other problems - the region has some of the highest levels of energy/fuel poverty and poor air quality in the UK.  The policy commission will help shape the regional local government and industry thinking surrounding this important topic.

Report Recommendations

Recovery Resource Cluster

The EfW policy commission proposes three major areas where it believes that government investment would be highly beneficial

• Building a network of local and regional Resource Recovery Clusters
• Creating a National Centre for the Circular Economy
• Launching an R&D Grand Challenge to develop small-scale circular carbon capture technologies.

The Resource Recovery Clusters (RRC) will be developed on post-industrial sites which could produce significant environmental economic and regeneration benefits. The RRCs combine a spread of EfW and recycling technologies with businesses that can consume their cheap electricity heat fuels CO₂ and material outputs.

The National Centre for the Circular Economy would analyse material flows throughout the economy down to regional and local levels and develop deep expertise in recycling and EfW technologies. The CCE would also provide expert guidance and support for local authorities as they develop local or regional strategies and planning frameworks.

The R&D Grand Challenge aims to make big advances in small-scale carbon capture technologies in order to turn 100% of CO₂ produced through the process of converting waste to energy into useful products. This is very important for areas such as the Midlands which are remoted from depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

This study seeks to find the appropriate strategies necessary to make sustainable and effective hydrogen energy investments. Within this scope nine different criteria are defined regarding social managerial and financial factors. A hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology is considered to calculate the degree of importance of the criteria. Additionally impact relation maps are also generated to visualize the causality relationship between the factors. The findings indicate that the technical dimension has the greatest importance in comparison to managerial and financial factors. Furthermore it is also concluded that storage and logistics research and development and technological infrastructure are the most significant factors to be considered when defining hydrogen energy investment strategies. Hence before investing in hydrogen energy necessary actions should be taken to minimize the storage and logistic costs. Among them building the production site close to the usage area will contribute significantly to this purpose. In this way possible losses during the transportation of hydrogen can be minimized. Moreover it is essential to identify the lowest-cost hydrogen storage method by carrying out the necessary research and development activities thereby increasing the sustainability and effectiveness of hydrogen energy investment projects.

This work investigates life cycle costing analysis as a tool to estimate the cost of hydrogen to be used as fuel for Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (HFCVs). The method of life cycle costing and economic data are considered to estimate the cost of hydrogen for centralised and decentralised production processes. In the current study two major hydrogen production methods are considered methane reforming and water electrolysis. The costing frameworks are defined for hydrogen production transportation and final application. The results show that hydrogen production via centralised methane reforming is financially viable for future transport applications. The ownership cost of HFCVs shows the highest cost among other costs of life cycle analysis.

This paper discusses the economic operation strategy of the energy hub which is being established in South Korea. The energy hub has five energy conversion devices: a turbo expander generator a normal fuel cell a fuel cell with a hydrogen outlet a small-scale combined heat and power device and a photovoltaic device. We are developing the most economically beneficial operation strategy for the operators who own the hub without making any systematic improvements to the energy market. First sixteen conversion efficiency matrices can be achieved by turning each device (except the PV) on or off. Next even the same energy must be divided into different energy flows according to price. The energy flow is controlled to obtain the maximum profit considering the internal load of the energy hub and the price fluctuations of the energy market. Using our operating strategy the return on investment period is approximately 9.9 years which is three years shorter than that without the operating strategy.