Policy & Socio-Economics

The report “Policy Toolbox for Low Carbon and Renewable Hydrogen” is based on an assessment of the performance of hydrogen policies in different stages of market maturity and segments of the value chain. 48 policies were shortlisted based on their economic efficiency and effectiveness and mapped to barriers across the value chain and over time. These policies were subsequently clustered into policy packages for three country archetypes: a self-sufficient hydrogen producer an importer and an exporter of hydrogen.

The paper can be found on their website.

Renewable energy is considered the one of the most promising solutions to meet sustainable development goals in terms of climate change mitigation. Today we face the problem of further scaling up renewable energy infrastructure which requires the creation of reliable energy storages environmentally friendly carriers like hydrogen and competitive international markets. These issues provoke the involvement of resource-based countries in the energy transition which is questionable in terms of economic efficiency compared to conventional hydrocarbon resources. To shed a light on the possible efficiency of green hydrogen production in such countries this study is aimed at: (1) comparing key Russian trends of green hydrogen development with global trends (2) presenting strategic scenarios for the Russian energy sector development (3) presenting a case study of Russian hydrogen energy project «Dyakov Ust-Srednekanskaya HPP» in Magadan region. We argue that without significant changes in strategic planning and without focus on sustainable solutions support the further development of Russian power industry will be halted in a conservative scenario with the limited presence of innovative solutions in renewable energy industries. Our case study showed that despite the closeness to Japan hydrogen market economic efficiency is on the edge of zero with payback period around 17 years. The decrease in project capacity below 543.6 MW will immediately lead to a negative NPV. The key reason for that is the low average market price of hydrogen ($14/kg) which is only a bit higher than its production cost ($12.5/kg) while transportation requires about $0.96/kg more. Despite the discouraging results it should be taken into account that such strategic projects are at the edge of energy development. We see them as an opportunity to lead transnational energy trade of green hydrogen which could be competitive in the medium term especially with state support.

Globally climate change fossil fuel depletion and greenhouse emissions are fundamental problems requiring massive effort from the international scientific community to be addressed and solved. Following the Clean Energy for all Europeans Package (CEP) guidelines the Italian Government has established challenging and tight objectives both on energy and climate matter to be targeted by 2030. Accordingly research activities on different topics are carried out in Italy looking at the installation of intermittent renewable energy systems (IRES) implementation of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) on existing power plants and hydrogen technology and infrastructure penetration for accomplishing the end-users demands. The optimal integration of the above-mentioned technologies is one of the most effective weapons to address these objectives. The paper investigates different energy scenarios for meeting the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2030 targets showing how the combined implementation of around +12 GW of IRES and +6 GW of electrolyzers compared to the national estimates simultaneously with the CCS of around 10 Mt of CO2 per year can reduce the CO2 emissions up to about 247 Mt/year. Thanks to the adoption of the well-established software platform EnergyPlan the integration of IRES plants CCS and hydrogen-based technologies have been explored and the most successful results for concurrently reducing the impact of industrial transport residential and energy sectors and mitigating the greenhouse emissions substantially relies on the diversifications. Results show both the technical and economic convenience of a 2030 energy scenario which implements properly hydrogen IRES and CCS penetration in the energy system meeting the NECP 2030 targets and maintaining both the over-generation of the power plants below 5 TWh and the initial capital expenditure to be sustained for this scenario to occur below +80% compared to the 2019 energy scenario.

The present paper dwells on the role of green hydrogen in the transition towards climateneutral economies and reviews the central challenges for its emancipation as an economically viable source of energy. The study shows that countries with a substantial share of renewables in the energy mix advanced natural gas pipeline infrastructure and an advanced level of technological and economic development have a comparative advantage for the wider utilization of hydrogen in their national energy systems. The central conclusion this review paper is that a green hydrogen rollout in the developed and oil-exporting developing and emerging countries is not a risk for the rest of the world in terms of the increasing technological disparities and conservation of underdevelopment and concomitant socio-economic problems of the Global South. The targets anchored in Paris Agreement but even more in the EU Green Deal and the European Hydrogen Strategy will necessitate a substantial rollout of RESs in developing countries and especially in the countries of the African Union because of the prioritization of the African continent within the energy cooperation frameworks of the EU Green Deal and the EU Hydrogen Strategy. Hence the green hydrogen rollout will bridge the energy transition between Europe and Africa on the one hand and climate and development targets on the other.

The transition towards low-carbon energy and power has been extensively studied by research institutions and scholars. However the investment demand during the transition process has received insufficient attention. To address this gap an energy investment estimation method is proposed in this paper which takes the unit construction costs and potential development of major technology in the energy and power sector as input. The proposed estimation method can comprehensively assess the investment demand for various energy sources in different years including coal oil natural gas biomass power and hydrogen energy. Specifically we applied this method to estimate the investment demand of China’s energy and power sector from 2020 to 2060 at five year intervals. The results indicate that China’s cumulative energy investment demand over this period is approximately 127 trillion CNY with the power sector accounting for the largest proportion at 92.35% or approximately 117 trillion CNY. The calculated cumulative investment demand is consistent with the findings of several influential research institutions providing validation for the proposed method.

While Afghanistan’s power sector is almost completely dependent on fossil fuels it still cannot meet the rising power demand of this country. Deploying a combination of renewable energy systems with hydrogen production as the excess energy storage mechanism could be a sustainable long-term approach for addressing some of the energy problems of Afghanistan. Since Badakhshan is known to have a higher average wind speed than any other Afghan province in this study a technical economic and carbon footprint assessment was performed to investigate the potential for wind power and hydrogen production in this province. Wind data of four stations in Badakhshan were used for technical assessment for three heights of 10 30 and 40 m using the Weibull probability distribution function. This technical assessment was expanded by estimating the energy pattern factor probability of wind speeds greater than 5 m/s wind power density annual power output and annual hydrogen output. This was followed by an economic assessment which involved computing the Leveled Cost Of Energy (LCOE) the Leveled Cost Of Hydrogen (LCOH) and the payback period and finally an carbon footprint assessment which involved estimating the consequent CO2 reduction in two scenarios. The assessments were performed for 22 turbines manufactured by reputable companies with capacities ranging from 600 kW to 2.3 MW. The results showed that the entire Badakhshan province and especially Qal’eh-ye Panjeh and Fayazabad have excellent potentials in terms of wind energy that can be harvested for wind power and hydrogen production. Also wind power generation in this province will be highly cost-effective as the produced electricity will cost about one-third of the price of electricity supplied by the government. For better evaluation the GIS maps of wind power and hydrogen outputs were prepared using the IDW method. These maps showed that the eastern and northeastern parts of Badakhshan province have higher wind power-hydrogen production potentials. The results of ranking the stations with SWARA-EDAS hybrid MCDM methods showed that Qal’eh-ye Panjeh station was the best location to produce hydrogen from wind energy.

In order to achieve the EU’s target of 55% carbon reduction by 2030 hydrogen will have to make a key contribution to the energy mix. With many applications in industrial heat mobility power and chemical refineries hydrogen can be used to decarbonise where electrification is not possible. Equinor is a broad energy company with 21000 employees developing oil gas wind and solar energy in more than 30 countries worldwide. Equinor have been at the forefront of promoting hydrogen projects in Europe and developing low-carbon hydrogen solutions. In this episode Johan Leuraers Chief Consultant - Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Equinor and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRY Management Consulting join us to discuss the main barriers to the uptake of hydrogen and the next steps to kick-start the hydrogen economy.

The podcast can be found on their website.

This paper uses established and recently introduced methods from the applied mathematics and statistics literature to study trends in the end-use sector and the capacity of low-carbon hydrogen projects in recent and upcoming decades. First we examine distributions in plants over time for various end-use sectors and classify them according to metric discrepancy observing clear similarity across all industry sectors. Next we compare the distribution of usage sectors between different continents and examine the changes in sector distribution over time. Finally we judiciously apply several regression models to analyse the association between various predictors and the capacity of global hydrogen projects. Across our experiments we see a welcome exponential growth in the capacity of zero-carbon hydrogen plants and significant growth of new and planned hydrogen plants in the 2020’s across every sector.

As a clean low-carbon efficient and renewable energy source hydrogen has gradually become an important energy carrier to combat climate change and achieve sustainable development in the world. China is now facing the stress of realizing the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals where hydrogen will play a significant role. Against this backdrop to develop China's hydrogen strategy under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals this paper explores the hydrogen resource endowment in China presents the concepts such as Hydrogen Ethics and the Hu's Hydrogen Line and discusses the status quo and existing advantages in hydrogen production storage transport and utilization in China. Six major obstacles and challenges that China's hydrogen energy industry is facing are pointed out i.e. cost problem inadequate hydrogen infrastructures low energy efficiency mismatching the development progress of renewable energy insufficient market demand shortcomings in technology and imperfect policy system. Finally five policy suggestions for the future development of China's hydrogen energy industry are proposed as follows: (1) make an action plan as a response to the national hydrogen development plan; (2) build an international and domestic double-cycle hydrogen economic system; (3) incorporate hydrogen into the establishment of a clean low-carbon safe and efficient energy system; (4) accelerate the technological innovation to form advanced hydrogen technologies; and (5) construct hydrogen-oriented industrial clusters/parks to expand the hydrogen utilization market. It is concluded that for meeting the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals China should leverage the dual advantages of hydrogen as an energy carrier and an industrial raw material allowing the hydrogen industry to play a synergistic role in ensuring the country's energy security promoting the socio-economic transformation and upgrading and protecting the ecological environment thereby providing a technical option and support for China to achieve the ultimate goal of carbon neutrality.

Solar thermal technology can provide the United Arab Emirates and the Middle East region with abundant clean electricity to mitigate the rising levels of carbon dioxide and satisfy future demand. Hydrogen can play a key role in the large-scale application of solar thermal technologies such as concentrated solar plants in the region by storing the surplus electricity and exporting it to needed countries for profit placing the Middle East and the United Arab Emirates as major future green hydrogen suppliers. However a hydrogen supply chain comparison between hydrogen from CSP and other renewable under the UAE’s technical and economic conditions for hydrogen export is yet to be fully considered. Therefore in this study we provide a techno-economic analysis for well-to-ship solar hydrogen supply chain that compares CSP and PV technologies with a solid oxide water electrolyzer for hydrogen production assuming four different hydrogen delivery pathways based on the location of electrolyzer and source of electricity assuming the SOEC can be coupled to the CSP plant when placed at the same site or provided with electric heaters when placed at PV plant site or port sites. The results show that the PV plant achieves a lower levelized cost of electricity than that of the CSP plant with 5.08 ¢/kWh and 8.6 ¢/kWh respectively. Hydrogen production results show that the scenario where SOEC is coupled to the CSP plant is the most competitive scenario as it achieves the payback period in the shortest period compared to the other scenarios and also provides higher revenues and a cheaper LCOH of 7.85 $/kgH2.