Policy & Socio-Economics

This paper explores the alternative roles hydrogen can play in the future European Union (EU) energy system within the transition towards a carbon-neutral EU economy by 2050 following the latest policy developments after the COP21 agreement in Paris in 2015. Hydrogen could serve as an end-use fuel a feedstock to produce carbon-neutral hydrocarbons and a carrier of chemical storage of electricity. We apply a model-based energy system analysis to assess the advantages and drawbacks of these three roles of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy system. To this end the paper quantifies projections of the energy system using an enhanced version of the PRIMES energy system model up to 2050 to explore the best elements of each role under various assumptions about deployment and maturity of hydrogen-related technologies. Hydrogen is an enabler of sectoral integration of supply and demand of energy and hence an important pillar in the carbon-neutral energy system. The results show that the energy system has benefits both in terms of CO2 emission reductions and total system costs if hydrogen technology reaches high technology readiness levels and economies of scale. Reaching maturity requires a significant investment which depends on the positive anticipation of market development. The choice of policy options facilitating visibility by investors is the focus of the modelling in this paper.

Australia’s Technology Investment Roadmap is a strategy to accelerate development and commercialisation of low emissions technologies.

Annual low emissions statements are key milestones of the roadmap process. These statements prioritise low emissions technologies with potential to deliver the strongest economic and emissions reduction outcomes for Australia. They focus government investment on new and emerging technologies.

In this Statement

The first Low Emissions Technology Statement presents a vision of a prosperous Australia recognised as a global low emissions technology leader.

• priority technologies and economic stretch goals
• Australia’s big technology challenges and opportunities
• Technology Investment Framework
• monitoring transparency and impact evaluation

Innovative renewable routes are potentially able to sustain the transition to a decarbonized energy economy. Green synthetic fuels including hydrogen and natural gas are considered viable alternatives to fossil fuels. Indeed they play a fundamental role in those sectors that are difficult to electrify (e.g. road mobility or high-heat industrial processes) are capable of mitigating problems related to flexibility and instantaneous balance of the electric grid are suitable for large-size and long-term storage and can be transported through the gas network. This article is an overview of the overall supply chain including production transport storage and end uses. Available fuel conversion technologies use renewable energy for the catalytic conversion of non-fossil feedstocks into hydrogen and syngas. We will show how relevant technologies involve thermochemical electrochemical and photochemical processes. The syngas quality can be improved by catalytic CO and CO2 methanation reactions for the generation of synthetic natural gas. Finally the produced gaseous fuels could follow several pathways for transport and lead to different final uses. Therefore storage alternatives and gas interchangeability requirements for the safe injection of green fuels in the natural gas network and fuel cells are outlined. Nevertheless the effects of gas quality on combustion emissions and safety are considered.

This paper analyses the feasibility of power-to-gas in electricity markets dominated by renewables. The business case of a power-to-gas plant that is producing hydrogen is evaluated by determining the willingness to pay for electricity and by comparing this to the level and volatility of electricity prices in a number of European day-ahead markets. The short-term willingness to pay for electricity depends on the marginal costs and revenues of the plant while the long-term willingness to pay for electricity also takes into account investment and yearly fixed operational costs and therefore depends on the expected number of operating hours. The latter ultimately determines whether or not large-scale investments in the power-to-gas technology will take place.<br/>We find that power-to-gas plants are not profitable under current market conditions: even under the most optimistic assumptions for the cost and revenue parameters power-to-gas plants need to run for many hours during the year at very low prices (i.e. the long-term willingness to pay for electricity is very low) that do not currently exist in Europe. In an optimistic future scenario regarding investment costs efficiency and revenues of power-to-gas however the long-term willingness to pay for electricity is higher than the lowest recently observed day-ahead electricity prices. When prices remain at this low level investments in power-to-gas can thus become profitable.

This study analyzes the factors leading to the deployment of Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH₂) within the optimal design of district-scale Multi-Energy Systems (MES). To this end we utilize an optimization framework based on a mixed integer linear program that selects sizes and operates technologies in the MES to satisfy electric and thermal demands while minimizing annual costs and CO₂ emissions. We conduct a comprehensive uncertainty analysis that encompasses the entire set of technology (e.g. cost efficiency lifetime) and context (e.g. economic policy grid carbon footprint) input parameters as well as various climate-referenced districts (e.g. environmental data and energy demands) at a European-scope.

Minimum-emissions MES with large amounts of renewable energy generation and high ratios of seasonal thermal-to-electrical demand optimally achieve zero operational CO₂ emissions by utilizing PtH₂ seasonally to offset the long-term mismatch between renewable generation and energy demand. PtH₂ is only used to abate the last 5–10% emissions and it is installed along with a large battery capacity to maximize renewable self-consumption and completely electrify thermal demand with heat pumps and fuel cells. However this incurs additional cost. Additionally we show that ‘traditional’ MES comprised of renewables and short-term energy storage are able to decrease emissions by 90% with manageable cost increases.

The impact of uncertainty on the optimal system design reveals that the most influential parameter for PtH2 implementation is (1) heat pump efficiency as it is the main competitor in providing renewable-powered heat in winter. Further battery (2) capital cost and (3) lifetime prove to be significant as the competing electrical energy storage technology. In the face of policy uncertainties a CO₂ tax shows large potential to reduce emissions in district MES without cost implications. The results illustrate the importance of capturing the dynamics and uncertainties of short- and long-term energy storage technologies for assessing cost and CO₂ emissions in optimal MES designs over districts with different geographical scopes.

This report The Future of Clean Hydrogen in the United States: Views from Industry Market Innovators and Investors sheds light on the rapidly evolving hydrogen market based on 72 exploratory interviews with organizations across the current and emerging hydrogen value chain. This report is part of a series From Kilograms to Gigatons: Pathways for Hydrogen Market Formation in the United States which will build on this study to evaluate policy opportunities for further hydrogen development in the United States. The goal of the interviews was to provide a snapshot of the clean hydrogen investment environment and better understand organizations’ market outlook investment rationale and areas of interest. This interview approach was supported by traditional research methods to contextualize and enrich the qualitative findings. This report should be understood as input to a more extensive EFI analysis of hydrogen market formation in the United States; the directions that companies are pursuing in hydrogen production transport and storage and end use at this early stage of value chain development will inform subsequent analysis in important ways.

This article attempts to model interdependencies between socio-economic energy and environmental factors with selected data characterizing the development of the hydrogen economy. The study applies Spearman’s correlation and a linear regression model to estimate the influence of gross domestic product population final energy consumption renewable energy and CO2 emission on chosen hydrogen indicators—production patents energy technology research development and demonstration budgets. The study was conducted in nine countries selected for their actions towards a hydrogen economy based on analyses of national strategies policies research and development programs and roadmaps. The results confirm the statistically significant impact of the chosen indicators which are the drivers for the development of the hydrogen economy from 2008 to 2018. Moreover the empirical results show that different characteristics in each country contribute to the development of the hydrogen economy vision

Hydrogen is a promising commodity a renewable secondary energy source and feedstock alike to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets and promote economic decarbonization. A common goal pursued by many countries the hydrogen economy receives a blending of public and private capital. After European Green Deal state members created national policies focused on green hydrogen. This paper presents a study of energy transition considering green hydrogen production to identify Portugal’s current state and prospects. The analysis uses energy generation data hydrogen production aspects CO2 emissions indicators and based costs. A comprehensive simulation estimates the total production of green hydrogen related to the ratio of renewable generation in two different scenarios. Then a comparison between EGP goals and Portugal’s transport and energy generation prospects is made. Portugal has an essential renewable energy matrix that supports green hydrogen production and allows for meeting European green hydrogen 2030–2050 goals. Results suggest that promoting the conversion of buses and trucks into H2-based fuel is better for CO2 reduction. On the other hand given energy security thermoelectric plants fueled by H2 are the best option. The aggressive scenario implies at least 5% more costs than the moderate scenario considering economic aspects.

Achieving climate-neutrality requires considerable investment in energy storage systems (ESS) to integrate variable renewable energy sources into the grid. However investments into ESS are often unprofitable in particular for grid-scale battery storage and green hydrogen technologies prompting many actors to call for policy intervention. This study investigates investor-specific risk-return preferences for ESS investment and derives policy recommendations. Insights are drawn from 1605 experimental investment-related decisions obtained from 42 high-level institutional investors and utility representatives. Results reveal that both investor groups view revenue stacking as key to making ESS investment viable. While the expected return on investment is the most important project characteristic risk-return preferences for other features diverge between groups. Institutional investors appear more open to exploring new technological ventures (20% of utility respondents would not consider making investments into solar photovoltaic-hydrogen) whereas utilities seem to prefer greenfield projects (23% of surveyed institutional investors rejected such projects). Interestingly both groups show strong aversion towards energy market price risk. Institutional investors require a premium of 6.87 percentage points and utilities 5.54 percentage points for moving from a position of fully hedged against market price risk to a scenario where only 20% of revenue is fixed underlining the need for policy support.

This study presents an overview of the economic analysis and environmental impact of natural gas conversion technologies. Published articles related to economic analysis and environmental impact of natural gas conversion technologies were reviewed and discussed. The economic analysis revealed that the capital and the operating expenditure of each of the conversion process is strongly dependent on the sophistication of the technical designs. The emerging technologies are yet to be economically viable compared to the well-established steam reforming process. However appropriate design modifications could significantly reduce the operating expenditure and enhance the economic feasibility of the process. The environmental analysis revealed that emerging technologies such as carbon dioxide (CO2) reforming and the thermal decomposition of natural gas offer advantages of lower CO2 emissions and total environmental impact compared to the well-established steam reforming process. Appropriate design modifications such as steam reforming with carbon capture storage and utilization the use of an optimized catalyst in thermal decomposition and the use of solar concentrators for heating instead of fossil fuel were found to significantly reduced the CO2 emissions of the processes. There was a dearth of literature on the economic analysis and environmental impact of photocatalytic and biochemical conversion processes which calls for increased research attention that could facilitate a comparative analysis with the thermochemical processes.