Is the Promotion Policy for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Effective? Evidence from Chinese Cities

China has emerged as a global leader in promoting new energy vehicles; however, the impact of these efforts on the commercial vehicle sector remains limited. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are crucial for improving the environmental performance of commercial vehicles in China. This study evaluates the effectiveness of China’s Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle policies. Firstly, an evaluation index system for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle policies is established, quantifying the policy through two key metrics: policy comprehensiveness and policy synergy. Subsequently, city-level data from 84 municipalities (2018-2022) are analyzed to assess policy impacts on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles adoption. The results show that both policy comprehensiveness and synergy significantly drive hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales growth. Early sales figures also strongly influence current trends. Therefore, promoting growth in hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales can further enhance policy efforts while also accounting for the cumulative effects of initial promotional activities.