Strategic Deployment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Buses and Fueling Stations: Insights from Fleet Transition Models

Establishing new hydrogen value chains is challenging, requiring economies of scale and balanced supplydemand dynamics. Municipalities can mitigate this risk through government support and deployment strategies. This study analyzes Edmonton’s transition to zero-emission buses (ZEBs), focusing on hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) and hydrogen fueling stations (HFSs). Using scenario-based modeling and S-curve models for technology diffusion, we project the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and HFCEVs. Deploying over 1000 ZEBs by 2040 is necessary to meet Net-Zero targets, with 310–760 HFCEVs required for the municipal bus inventory. This results in an estimated hydrogen demand of 6.2–14.5 t-H2/day and a reduction of 0.4–1.0 Mt-CO2 in tailpipe emissions by 2050. We use these scenario projections to develop a phased deployment strategy, optimizing fleet operations to reduce HFS costs by 50–60% from 8 to 9 C$/kg-H2 to 3–4 C$/kg-H2. The study underscores the importance of strategic planning and infrastructure investment in realizing net-zero goals, providing a model applicable globally.