Assessment of Fuel Switching as a Decarbonization Strategy in the Cement Sector

Limiting global warming and the pursuit of a net-zero global society by 2050 emphasizes the need to transform the hard-to-abate industrial sectors. The cement sector is the second-largest source of global industrial emissions, accounting for 8% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. Fuel switching in the cement sector is a decarbonization pathway that has not been explored in detail; previous studies involving fuel switching in the sector either view it from an energy efficiency lens or focus on a single technology. In this study, a framework is developed to evaluate and directly compare six fuel switching options (including hydrogen, biomass, municipal solid waste, and natural gas) from 2020 to 2050. Capital costs, non-energy operating costs, energy costs, and carbon costs are used to calculate marginal abatement costs and emulate cost based-market decisions. The developed framework is used to conduct a case study for Canada, using the LEAP-Canada model. This study shows that cumulative energy-related greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by up to 21% between 2020 and 2050 with negative marginal abatement costs. Multiple fuel switching decarbonization pathways were established, reducing the likelihood that locality prevents meaningful emissions reduction and suggesting that, with low-carbon fuel and electricity policies, the sector can take significant steps towards emissions reduction. The developed framework can be applied to jurisdictions around the world for decision making, as nations move towards eliminating emissions from cement production.