Explaining Varying Speeds of Low-carbon Reorientation in the United Kingdom's Steel, Petrochemical, and Oil Refining Industries: A Multi-dimensional Comparative Analysis and Outlook

Accelerated decarbonisation of steelmaking, oil refining and petrochemical industries is essential for climate change mitigation. Drawing on three longitudinal case studies of these industries in the UK, this synthesis article makes a comparative analysis of their varying low-carbon reorientation speeds. The paper uses the triple embeddedness framework to analyse five factors (policy support, international competition, financial health, technical feasibility, corporate strategy and mindset) that explain why UK oil refineries have in recent years been comparatively the fastest in their low-carbon reorientation and UK steelmakers the slowest. We find that policy support has been more beneficial for refining and petrochemicals than for steel, although recent government deals with steelmakers addressed this imbalance. International competition has been high for steel and petrochemicals and comparatively lower for refining (meaning that decarbonisation costs are less detrimental for international competitiveness). Financial performance has comparatively been worst for steel and best for oil refining, which shapes the economic feasibility of low-carbon options. Hydrogen and carbon-capture-and-storage are technologically feasible for refining and petrochemicals, while Electric Arc Furnaces are technically feasible for steelmakers but face wider feasibility problems (with scrap steel supply, electricity grids, and electricity prices), which is why we question the recent government deals. Corporate strategy and perceptions changed in oil refining, with firms seeing economic opportunities in decarbonisation, while steelmakers and petrochemical firms still mostly see decarbonisation as a burden and threat. The paper ends with comparative conclusions, a discussion of political considerations, and future outlooks for the three UK industries, policy, and research.