Refuelling Infrastructure Requirements for Renewable Hydrogen Road Fuel through the Energy Transition

Current commercially available options for decarbonisation of road transport are battery electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. BEVs are increasingly deployed, while hydrogen is in its infancy. We examine the infrastructure necessary to support hydrogen fuelling to various degrees of market penetration. Scotland makes a good exemplar of transport transition, with a world leading Net-Zero ambition and proven pathways for generating ample renewable energy. We identified essential elements of the new transport systems and the associated capital expenditure. We developed nine scenarios based on the pace of change and the ultimate market share of hydrogen, and constructed a model to analyse their infrastructure requirements. This is a multi-period model, incorporating Monte Carlo and Markov Chain elements. A “no-regrets” initial action is rapid deployment of enough hydrogen infrastructure to facilitate the early years of a scenario where diesel fuel becomes replaced with hydrogen. Even in a lower demand scenario of only large and heavy goods vehicles using hydrogen, the same infrastructure would be required within a further two years. Subsequent investment in infrastructure could be considered in the light of this initial development.