Switzerland
Analysing Long-term Opportunities for Offshore Energy System Integration in the Danish North Sea
Aug 2021
Publication
This study analyzes future synergies between the Oil and Gas (O&G) and renewables sectors in a Danish context and explores how exploiting these synergies could lead to economic and environmental benefits. We review and highlight relevant technologies and related projects and synthesize the state of the art in offshore energy system integration. All of these preliminary results serve as input data for a holistic energy system analysis in the Balmorel modeling framework. With a timeframe out to 2050 and model scope including all North Sea neighbouring countries this analysis explores a total of nine future scenarios for the North Sea energy system. The main results include an immediate electrification of all operational Danish platforms by linking them to the shore and/or a planned Danish energy island. These measures result in cost and CO2 emissions savings compared to a BAU scenario of 72% and 85% respectively. When these platforms cease production this is followed by the repurposing of the platforms into hydrogen generators with up to 3.6 GW of electrolysers and the development of up to 5.8 GW of floating wind. The generated hydrogen is assumed to power the future transport sector and is delivered to shore in existing and/or new purpose-built pipelines. The contribution of the O&G sector to this hydrogen production amounts to around 19 TWh which represents about 2% of total European hydrogen demand for transport in 2050. The levelized costs (LCOE) of producing this hydrogen in 2050 are around 4 €2020/kg H2 which is around twice those expected in similar studies. But this does not account for energy policies that may incentivize green hydrogen production in the future which would serve to reduce this LCOE to a level that is more competitive with other sources.
Power-to-fuels Via Solid-oxide Electrolyzer: Operating Window and Techno-economics
May 2019
Publication
Power-to-fuel systems via solid-oxide electrolysis are promising for storing excess renewable electricity by efficient electrolysis of steam (or co-electrolysis of steam and CO2) into hydrogen (or syngas) which can be further converted into synthetic fuels with plant-wise thermal integration. Electrolysis stack performance and durability determine the system design performance and long-term operating strategy; thus solid-oxide electrolyzer based power-to-fuels were investigated from the stack to system levels. At the stack level the data from a 6000-h stack testing under laboratory isothermal conditions were used to calibrate a quasi-2D model which enables to predict practical isothermal stack performance with reasonable accuracy. Feasible stack operating windows meeting various design specifications (e.g. specific syngas composition) were further generated to support the selection of operating points. At the system level with the chosen similar stack operating points various power-to-fuel systems including power-to-hydrogen power-to-methane power-to-methanol (dimethyl ether) and power-to-gasoline were compared techno-economically considering system-level heat integration. Several operating strategies of the stack were compared to address the increase in stack temperature due to degradation. The modeling results show that the system efficiency for producing H2 methane methanol/dimethyl ether and gasoline decreases sequentially from 94% (power-to-H2) to 64% (power-to-gasoline) based on a higher heating value. Co-electrolysis which allows better heat integration can improve the efficiency of the systems with less exothermic fuel-synthesis processes (e.g. methanol/dimethyl ether) but offers limited advantages for power-to-methane and power-to-gasoline systems. In a likely future scenario where the growing amount of electricity from renewable sources results in increasing periods of a negative electricity price solid oxide electrolyser based power-to-fuel systems are highly suitable for levelling the price fluctuations in an economic way.
A Manganese Hydride Molecular Sieve for Practical Hydrogen Storage Under Ambient Conditions
Dec 2018
Publication
A viable hydrogen economy has thus far been hampered by the lack of an inexpensive and convenient hydrogen storage solution meeting all requirements especially in the areas of long hauls and delivery infrastructure. Current approaches require high pressure and/or complex heat management systems to achieve acceptable storage densities. Herein we present a manganese hydride molecular sieve that can be readily synthesized from inexpensive precursors and demonstrates a reversible excess adsorption performance of 10.5 wt% and 197 kgH2 m-3 at 120 bar at ambient temperature with no loss of activity after 54 cycles. Inelastic neutron scattering and computational studies confirm Kubas binding as the principal mechanism. The thermodynamically neutral adsorption process allows for a simple system without the need for heat management using moderate pressure as a toggle. A storage material with these properties will allow the DOE system targets for storage and delivery to be achieved providing a practical alternative to incumbents such as 700 bar systems which generally provide volumetric storage values of 40 kgH2 m-3 or less while retaining advantages over batteries such as fill time and energy density. Reasonable estimates for production costs and loss of performance due to system implementation project total energy storage costs roughly 5 times cheaper than those for 700 bar tanks potentially opening doors for increased adoption of hydrogen as an energy vector.
The Potential of Gas Switching Partial Oxidation Using Advanced Oxygen Carriers for Efficient H2 Production with Inherent CO2 Capture
May 2021
Publication
The hydrogen economy has received resurging interest in recent years as more countries commit to net-zero CO2 emissions around the mid-century. “Blue” hydrogen from natural gas with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is one promising sustainable hydrogen supply option. Although conventional CO2 capture imposes a large energy penalty advanced process concepts using the chemical looping principle can produce blue hydrogen at efficiencies even exceeding the conventional steam methane reforming (SMR) process without CCS. One such configuration is gas switching reforming (GSR) which uses a Ni-based oxygen carrier material to catalyze the SMR reaction and efficiently supply the required process heat by combusting an off-gas fuel with integrated CO2 capture. The present study investigates the potential of advanced La-Fe-based oxygen carrier materials to further increase this advantage using a gas switching partial oxidation (GSPOX) process. These materials can overcome the equilibrium limitations facing conventional catalytic SMR and achieve direct hydrogen production using a water-splitting reaction. Results showed that the GSPOX process can achieve mild efficiency improvements relative to GSR in the range of 0.6–4.1%-points with the upper bound only achievable by large power and H2 co-production plants employing a highly efficient power cycle. These performance gains and the avoidance of toxicity challenges posed by Ni-based oxygen carriers create a solid case for the further development of these advanced materials. If successful results from this work indicate that GSPOX blue hydrogen plants can outperform an SMR benchmark with conventional CO2 capture by more than 10%-points both in terms of efficiency and CO2 avoidance.
Spin Pinning Effect to Reconstructed Oxyhydroxide Layer on Ferromagnetic Oxides for Enhanced Water Oxidation
Jun 2021
Publication
Producing hydrogen by water electrolysis suffers from the kinetic barriers in the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) that limits the overall efficiency. With spin-dependent kinetics in OER to manipulate the spin ordering of ferromagnetic OER catalysts (e.g. by magnetization) can reduce the kinetic barrier. However most active OER catalysts are not ferromagnetic which makes the spin manipulation challenging. In this work we report a strategy with spin pinning effect to make the spins in paramagnetic oxyhydroxides more aligned for higher intrinsic OER activity. The spin pinning effect is established in oxideFM/oxyhydroxide interface which is realized by a controlled surface reconstruction of ferromagnetic oxides. Under spin pinning simple magnetization further increases the spin alignment and thus the OER activity which validates the spin effect in rate-limiting OER step. The spin polarization in OER highly relies on oxyl radicals (O∙) created by 1st dehydrogenation to reduce the barrier for subsequent O-O coupling.
Direct Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion at Auto-ignitive Conditions Ignition, Stability and Turbulent Reaction-front Velocity
Mar 2021
Publication
Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) are performed to investigate the process of spontaneous ignition of hydrogen flames at laminar turbulent adiabatic and non-adiabatic conditions. Mixtures of hydrogen and vitiated air at temperatures representing gas-turbine reheat combustion are considered. Adiabatic spontaneous ignition processes are investigated first providing a quantitative characterization of stable and unstable flames. Results indicate that in hydrogen reheat combustion compressibility effects play a key role in flame stability and that unstable ignition and combustion are consistently encountered for reactant temperatures close to the mixture’s characteristic crossover temperature. Furthermore it is also found that the characterization of the adiabatic processes is also valid in the presence of non-adiabaticity due to wall heat-loss. Finally a quantitative characterization of the instantaneous fuel consumption rate within the reaction front is obtained and of its ability at auto-ignitive conditions to advance against the approaching turbulent flow of the reactants for a range of different turbulence intensities temperatures and pressure levels.
Pt Catalytic Effects on the Corrosion and Hydrogen Chemisorption Properties of Zircaloy-2
Dec 2020
Publication
Noble metals are added to boiling water reactors (BWRs) to mitigate stress corrosion cracking of structural components made from steels and Ni-based alloys and this technology is referred to as Noble Metal Chemical Addition (NMCA) or NobleChemTM. There is a growing concern that NMCA can cause unwanted harmful effects on the corrosion and hydrogen uptake properties of Zircaloy-2 fuel cladding. To investigate this we have subjected Zircaloy-2 fuel claddings to out-of-pile BWR conditions in a custom-built autoclave. These claddings are oxidized in pressurized hot water (280 °C 9 MPa) for 25 60 and 150 days wherein Pt nanoparticles (~10 nm) were simultaneously injected. Cross-sectional focused ion beam cuts made at the oxide-metal interface reveal that the oxide growth is not significantly influenced by the local Pt loadings (≤ 1 µg·cm-2). Surprisingly an inverse correlation was observed between oxide thicknesses and metal's hydrogen contents. Interestingly Pt catalysts have led to diminished hydrogen absorption in specimens with liner exposed to the hot water. Overall Pt catalysts exhibited no detrimental effects on the corrosion rate and hydrogen absorption in Zircaloy-2.
Power-to-hydrogen as Seasonal Energy Storage: An Uncertainty Analysis for Optimal Design of Low-carbon Multi-energy Systems
Jun 2020
Publication
This study analyzes the factors leading to the deployment of Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) within the optimal design of district-scale Multi-Energy Systems (MES). To this end we utilize an optimization framework based on a mixed integer linear program that selects sizes and operates technologies in the MES to satisfy electric and thermal demands while minimizing annual costs and CO2 emissions. We conduct a comprehensive uncertainty analysis that encompasses the entire set of technology (e.g. cost efficiency lifetime) and context (e.g. economic policy grid carbon footprint) input parameters as well as various climate-referenced districts (e.g. environmental data and energy demands) at a European-scope.
Minimum-emissions MES with large amounts of renewable energy generation and high ratios of seasonal thermal-to-electrical demand optimally achieve zero operational CO2 emissions by utilizing PtH2 seasonally to offset the long-term mismatch between renewable generation and energy demand. PtH2 is only used to abate the last 5–10% emissions and it is installed along with a large battery capacity to maximize renewable self-consumption and completely electrify thermal demand with heat pumps and fuel cells. However this incurs additional cost. Additionally we show that ‘traditional’ MES comprised of renewables and short-term energy storage are able to decrease emissions by 90% with manageable cost increases.
The impact of uncertainty on the optimal system design reveals that the most influential parameter for PtH2 implementation is (1) heat pump efficiency as it is the main competitor in providing renewable-powered heat in winter. Further battery (2) capital cost and (3) lifetime prove to be significant as the competing electrical energy storage technology. In the face of policy uncertainties a CO2 tax shows large potential to reduce emissions in district MES without cost implications. The results illustrate the importance of capturing the dynamics and uncertainties of short- and long-term energy storage technologies for assessing cost and CO2 emissions in optimal MES designs over districts with different geographical scopes.
Minimum-emissions MES with large amounts of renewable energy generation and high ratios of seasonal thermal-to-electrical demand optimally achieve zero operational CO2 emissions by utilizing PtH2 seasonally to offset the long-term mismatch between renewable generation and energy demand. PtH2 is only used to abate the last 5–10% emissions and it is installed along with a large battery capacity to maximize renewable self-consumption and completely electrify thermal demand with heat pumps and fuel cells. However this incurs additional cost. Additionally we show that ‘traditional’ MES comprised of renewables and short-term energy storage are able to decrease emissions by 90% with manageable cost increases.
The impact of uncertainty on the optimal system design reveals that the most influential parameter for PtH2 implementation is (1) heat pump efficiency as it is the main competitor in providing renewable-powered heat in winter. Further battery (2) capital cost and (3) lifetime prove to be significant as the competing electrical energy storage technology. In the face of policy uncertainties a CO2 tax shows large potential to reduce emissions in district MES without cost implications. The results illustrate the importance of capturing the dynamics and uncertainties of short- and long-term energy storage technologies for assessing cost and CO2 emissions in optimal MES designs over districts with different geographical scopes.
Mobility from Renewable Electricity: Infrastructure Comparison for Battery and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
May 2018
Publication
This work presents a detailed breakdown of the energy conversion chains from intermittent electricity to a vehicle considering battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). The traditional well-to-wheel analysis is adapted to a grid to mobility approach by introducing the intermediate steps of useful electricity energy carrier and on-board storage. Specific attention is given to an effective coupling with renewable electricity sources and associated storage needs. Actual market data show that compared to FCEVs BEVs and their infrastructure are twice as efficient in the conversion of renewable electricity to a mobility service. A much larger difference between BEVs and FCEVs is usually reported in the literature. Focusing on recharging events this work additionally shows that the infrastructure efficiencies of both electric vehicle (EV) types are very close with 57% from grid to on-board storage for hydrogen refilling stations and 66% for fast chargers coupled with battery storage. The transfer from the energy carrier at the station to on-board storage in the vehicle accounts for 9% and 12% of the total energy losses of these two modes respectively. Slow charging modes can achieve a charging infrastructure efficiency of 78% with residential energy storage systems coupled with AC chargers.
The Effect of Hydrogen Enrichment, Flame-flame Interaction, Confinement, and Asymmetry on the Acoustic Response of a Model Can Combustor
Apr 2022
Publication
To maximise power density practical gas turbine combustion systems have several injectors which can lead to complex interactions between flames. However our knowledge about the effect of flame-flame interactions on the flame response the essential element to predict the stability of a combustor is still limited. The present study investigates the effect of hydrogen enrichment flame-flame interaction confinement and asymmetries on the linear and non-linear acoustic response of three premixed flames in a simple can combustor. A parametric study of the linear response characterised by the flame transfer function (FTF) is performed for swirling and non-swirling flames. Flame-flame interactions were achieved by changing the injector spacing and the level of hydrogen enrichment by power from 10 to 50%. It was found that the latter had the most significant effect on the flame response. Asymmetry effects were investigated by changing one of the flames by using a different bluff-body to alter both the flame shape and flow field. The global flame response showed that the asymmetric cases can be reconstructed using a superposition of the two symmetric cases where all three bluff-bodies and flames are the same. Overall the linear response characterised by the flame transfer function (FTF) showed that the effect of increasing the level of hydrogen enrichment is more pronounced than the effect of the injector spacing. Increasing hydrogen enrichment results in more compact flames which minimises flame-flame interactions. More compact flames increase the cut-off frequency which can lead to self-excited modes at higher frequencies. Finally the non-linear response was characterised by measuring the flame describing function (FDF) at a frequency close to a self-excited mode of the combustor for different injector spacings and levels of hydrogen enrichment. It is shown that increasing the hydrogen enrichment leads to higher saturation amplitude whereas the effect of injector spacing has a comparably smaller effect.
Risk-adjusted Preferences of Utility Companies and Institutional Investors for Battery Storage and Green Hydrogen Investment
Feb 2022
Publication
Achieving climate-neutrality requires considerable investment in energy storage systems (ESS) to integrate variable renewable energy sources into the grid. However investments into ESS are often unprofitable in particular for grid-scale battery storage and green hydrogen technologies prompting many actors to call for policy intervention. This study investigates investor-specific risk-return preferences for ESS investment and derives policy recommendations. Insights are drawn from 1605 experimental investment-related decisions obtained from 42 high-level institutional investors and utility representatives. Results reveal that both investor groups view revenue stacking as key to making ESS investment viable. While the expected return on investment is the most important project characteristic risk-return preferences for other features diverge between groups. Institutional investors appear more open to exploring new technological ventures (20% of utility respondents would not consider making investments into solar photovoltaic-hydrogen) whereas utilities seem to prefer greenfield projects (23% of surveyed institutional investors rejected such projects). Interestingly both groups show strong aversion towards energy market price risk. Institutional investors require a premium of 6.87 percentage points and utilities 5.54 percentage points for moving from a position of fully hedged against market price risk to a scenario where only 20% of revenue is fixed underlining the need for policy support.
Perspective on the Hydrogen Economy as a Pathway to Reach Net-zero CO2 Emissions in Europe
Jan 2022
Publication
The envisioned role of hydrogen in the energy transition – or the concept of a hydrogen economy – has varied through the years. In the past hydrogen was mainly considered a clean fuel for cars and/or electricity production; but the current renewed interest stems from the versatility of hydrogen in aiding the transition to CO2 neutrality where the capability to tackle emissions from distributed applications and complex industrial processes is of paramount importance. However the hydrogen economy will not materialise without strong political support and robust infrastructure design. Hydrogen deployment needs to address multiple barriers at once including technology development for hydrogen production and conversion infrastructure co-creation policy market design and business model development. In light of these challenges we have brought together a group of hydrogen researchers who study the multiple interconnected disciplines to offer a perspective on what is needed to deploy the hydrogen economy as part of the drive towards net-zero-CO2 societies. We do this by analysing (i) hydrogen end-use technologies and applications (ii) hydrogen production methods (iii) hydrogen transport and storage networks (iv) legal and regulatory aspects and (v) business models. For each of these we provide key take home messages ranging from the current status to the outlook and needs for further research. Overall we provide the reader with a thorough understanding of the elements in the hydrogen economy state of play and gaps to be filled.
Increasing the Energy Efficiency of Gas Boosters for Hydrogen Storage and for Refueling Stations
Feb 2023
Publication
A new electrically driven gas booster is described as an alternative to the classical air-driven gas boosters known for their poor energetic efficiency. These boosters are used in small scale Hydrogen storage facilities and in refueling stations for Hydrogen vehicles. In such applications the overall energy count is of significance and must include the efficiency of the compression stage. The proposed system uses an electric motor instead of the pneumatic actuator and increases the total efficiency of the compression process. Two mechanical principles are studied for the transformation of the rotational motion of the motor to the linear displacement of the compressor pistons. The strongly fluctuating power of the compressor is smoothed by an active capacitive auxiliary storage device connected to the DC circuit of the power converter. The proposed system has been verified by numeric simulation including the thermodynamic phenomena the kinetics of the new compressor drive and the the operation of the circuits of the power smoothing system.
Optimal Design of Multi-energy Systems with Seasonal Storage
Oct 2017
Publication
Optimal design and operation of multi-energy systems involving seasonal energy storage are often hindered by the complexity of the optimization problem. Indeed the description of seasonal cycles requires a year-long time horizon while the system operation calls for hourly resolution; this turns into a large number of decision variables including binary variables when large systems are analyzed. This work presents novel mixed integer linear program methodologies that allow considering a year time horizon with hour resolution while significantly reducing the complexity of the optimization problem. First the validity of the proposed techniques is tested by considering a simple system that can be solved in a reasonable computational time without resorting to design days. Findings show that the results of the proposed approaches are in good agreement with the full-scale optimization thus allowing to correctly size the energy storage and to operate the system with a long-term policy while significantly simplifying the optimization problem. Furthermore the developed methodology is adopted to design a multi-energy system based on a neighborhood in Zurich Switzerland which is optimized in terms of total annual costs and carbon dioxide emissions. Finally the system behavior is revealed by performing a sensitivity analysis on different features of the energy system and by looking at the topology of the energy hub along the Pareto sets.
Deep Decarbonisation Pathways of the Energy System in Times of Unprecedented Uncertainty in the Energy Sector
May 2023
Publication
Unprecedented investments in clean energy technology are required for a net-zero carbon energy system before temperatures breach the Paris Agreement goals. By performing a Monte-Carlo Analysis with the detailed ETSAPTIAM Integrated Assessment Model and by generating 4000 scenarios of the world’s energy system climate and economy we find that the uncertainty surrounding technology costs resource potentials climate sensitivity and the level of decoupling between energy demands and economic growth influence the efficiency of climate policies and accentuate investment risks in clean energy technologies. Contrary to other studies relying on exploring the uncertainty space via model intercomparison we find that the CO2 emissions and CO2 prices vary convexly and nonlinearly with the discount rate and climate sensitivity over time. Accounting for this uncertainty is important for designing climate policies and carbon prices to accelerate the transition. In 70% of the scenarios a 1.5 ◦C temperature overshoot was within this decade calling for immediate policy action. Delaying this action by ten years may result in 2 ◦C mitigation costs being similar to those required to reach the 1.5 ◦C target if started today with an immediate peak in emissions a larger uncertainty in the medium-term horizon and a higher effort for net-zero emissions.
Conditions for Profitable Operation of P2X Energy Hubs to Meet Local Demand Under Energy Market Access
Feb 2023
Publication
This paper analyzes the operation of an energy hub on a community level with an integrated P2X facility and with access to energy markets. In our case P2X allows converting power to hydrogen heat methane or back to power. We consider the energy hub as a large prosumer who can be both a producer and consumer in the markets with the novelty that P2X technology is available. We investigate how such a P2X energy hub trades optimally in the electricity market and satisfies local energy demand under the assumption of a long-term strong climate scenario in year 2050. For numerical analysis a case study of a mountain village in Switzerland is used. One of the main contributions of this paper is to quantify key conditions for profitable operations of such a P2X energy hub. In particular the analysis includes impacts of influencing factors on profits and operational patterns in terms of different degrees of self-sufficiency and different availability of local renewable resources. Moreover the access to real-time wholesale market electricity price signals and a future retail hydrogen market is assessed. The key factors for the successful operation of a P2X energy hub are identified to be sufficient local renewable resources and access to a retail market of hydrogen. The results also show that the P2X operation leads to an increased deployment of local renewables especially in the case of low initial deployment; on the other hand seasonal storage plays a subordinated role. Additionally P2X lowers for the community the wholesale electricity market trading volumes.
Solar Fuel Processing: Comparative Mini-review on Research, Technology Development, and Scaling
Oct 2022
Publication
Solar energy provides an unprecedented potential as a renewable and sustainable energy resource and will substantially reshape our future energy economy. It is not only useful in producing electricity but also (hightemperature) heat and fuel both required for non-electrifiable energy services. Fuels are particularly valuable as they are energy dense and storable and they can also act as a feedstock for the chemical industry. Technical pathways for the processing of solar fuels include thermal pathways (e.g. solar thermochemistry) photo pathways (e.g. photoelectrochemistry) and combinations thereof. A review of theoretical limits indicates that all technical solar fuel processing pathways have the potential for competitive solar-to-fuel efficiencies (>10 %) but require very different operating conditions (e.g. temperature levels or oxygen partial pressures) making them complementary and highly versatile for process integration. Progress in photoelectrochemical devices and solar thermochemical reactors over the last 50 + years are summarized showing encouraging trends in terms of performance technological viability and scaling.
Life Cycle Assessment and Economic Analysis of an Innovative Biogas Membrane Reformer for Hydrogen Production
Feb 2019
Publication
This work investigates the environmental and economic performances of a membrane reactor for hydrogen production from raw biogas. Potential benefits of the innovative technology are compared against reference hydrogen production processes based on steam (or autothermal) reforming water gas shift reactors and a pressure swing adsorption unit. Both biogas produced by landfill and anaerobic digestion are considered to evaluate the impact of biogas composition. Starting from the thermodynamic results the environmental analysis is carried out using environmental Life cycle assessment (LCA). Results show that the adoption of the membrane reactor increases the system efficiency by more than 20 percentage points with respect to the reference cases. LCA analysis shows that the innovative BIONICO system performs better than reference systems when biogas becomes a limiting factor for hydrogen production to satisfy market demand as a higher biogas conversion efficiency can potentially substitute more hydrogen produced by fossil fuels (natural gas). However when biogas is not a limiting factor for hydrogen production the innovative system can perform either similar or worse than reference systems as in this case impacts are largely dominated by grid electric energy demand and component use rather than conversion efficiency. Focusing on the economic results hydrogen production cost shows lower value with respect to the reference cases (4 €/kgH2 vs 4.2 €/kgH2) at the same hydrogen delivery pressure of 20 bar. Between landfill and anaerobic digestion cases the latter has the lower costs as a consequence of the higher methane content.
Smart Power-to-gas Deployment Strategies Informed by Spatially Explicit Cost and Value Models
Oct 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen allows coupling renewable electricity to hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as long-distance transport and carbon-intensive industries in order to achieve net zero emissions. Evaluating the cost and value of power-to-gas is a major challenge owing to the spatial distribution and temporal variability of renewable electricity CO2 and energy demand. Here we propose a method based on geographic information system (GIS) and techno-economic modeling to: (i) compare the levelized cost and levelized value of power-to-gas across locations; (ii) identify potential hotspots for their future implementation in Switzerland; and (iii) set cost improvement targets as well as smart deployment strategies. Our method accounts for the spatial and temporal (both hourly and seasonal) availability of renewable electricity and CO2 sources as well as the presence of gas infrastructure heating networks oxygen and gas demand centers. We find that only green hydrogen plants connected directly to run-of-river hydropower plants are currently profitable in Switzerland (with NPV per CAPEX ranging between 2.3-5.6). However considering technological progress by 2050 a few green hydrogen plants deployed in the demand centers and powered by rooftop PV electricity will also become economically attractive. Moreover a few synthetic methane plants connected to run-of-river hydropower plants currently show slight profitability (NPV per CAPEX reaching values up to 1.3) and in 2050 (NPV per CAPEX up to 3.1) whereas those connected to rooftop PV will remain uneconomical even in 2050. Based on our findings we devise a long-term roadmap for policy makers and project developers to plan future green hydrogen projects. The proposed methodology which is applied to Switzerland can be extended to other countries.
Optimal Pathways for the Decarbonisation of the Transport Sector: Trade-offs Between Battery and Hydrogen Technologies Using a Whole Energy System Perspective
Jun 2023
Publication
Several countries have revised their targets in recent years to reach net-zero CO2 emissions across all sectors by 2050 and the transport sector is responsible for a significant share of these emissions. This study compares possible pathways to decarbonise the transport sector through electrification including passenger cars light commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles. To do so we explore 125 scenarios by varying the share of battery and hydrogen-based fuel cell electric vehicles in each of the three categories above independently. We further model the decarbonisation of the industrial hydrogen demand using electrolysers with hydrogen storage. To explore the potential role of electric and hydrogen transport as well as their trade-offs we use GRIMSEL an open-source sector coupling energy system model of Switzerland which includes the residential commercial industrial and transport sectors with four energy carriers namely electricity heat hot water and hydrogen. The total costs are minimised from a social planner perspective. We find that the full electrification of the transport sector could lead on average to a 12% increase in costs by 2050 and 1.3 MtCO2/year which represents a 90% CO2 emissions reduction for the whole sector. Second the transport energy self-sufficiency (i.e. the share of domestic electricity generation in final transport demand) may reach up to 50% for the scenarios with the largest share of battery electric vehicles mainly due to a smaller energy demand than with hydrogen vehicles. Third more than three quarters of the industrial hydrogen production is met by local photovoltaic electricity coupled with battery at minimum costs i.e. green hydrogen. Finally the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier to store electricity over a long period is not cost-optimal.
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